First Annual Cleveland Symposium of International Affairs 

Presented by: The Council for Strategic Affairs

Please Register  ⇨  Jammu & Kashmir: The way forward

 

DR. ADITYANJEE 
PRESIDENT, 
THE COUNCIL FOR STRATEGIC AFFAIRS, 
NEW DELHI 
adityancsa@gmail.com 
twitter@adityanjee 
अपि स्वर्णमयी लङ्का न मे लक्ष्मण रोचते जननी जन्मभूमिश्च स्वर्गादपि गरीयसी 

Pulwama- a tipping point in Indian's Foreign Policy?

Pulwama- a tipping point in Indian's Foreign Policy?

by Dr. Anjali Kanojia, Ph.D.

As the diaspora woke up on Valentine's day, most received good morning text messages with flowers, heart photos and emojis while many of us also had news awaiting on our phones about the brutal attack against the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) in Pulwama.  The immediate response to such depraved inhumanity imposed by Islamic terrorists on Indian soil warrants our sympathy and financial help for the forty souls who lost their lives without a real chance to fight. But, most of us remain shocked and exceedingly perplexed about long-term strategies towards Islamist terrorism and the deteriorating state of Pakistan. 

Solutions covered in the media and within public opinion range from diplomacy to declaration of war on the same groups which have been responsible for multiple attacks on India.  Further solutions include: increasing dialogue and engagement with Pakistan, Islamic terrorists, or a combination of the two, engaging the international community to isolate Pakistan via sanctions and re-examining aid, engaging China in order to weaken Pakistan-China ties, immediate strikes on those responsible to seek revenge, a planned surgical strike to isolate and weaken those responsible, empowering separatist movements within Pakistan to further weaken the state machinery and governance highlighting the plight of minorities in the provinces and exposing the day-to-day hardships faced by them including but not limited to kidnapping of minority, including Hindu children and women, forced conversions, love jihad, and brutal murders, and long-term strategies such as engaging and empowering Non-Governmental Organizations NGOs on the ground to do exactly the type of work which has been occurring in India.  Lastly, a strategy from outside the government involves use of social media to expose the realities on the ground, including education through facts, historical accounts, and statistically valid data to counter alternative facts and false narratives which have been increasingly prominent in all sectors of society, including academia. 

Let us examine the feasibility of some of the strategies.  Dialogue and diplomacy are the pillars of democracy and international relations.  However, what is the value of diplomacy for nations which are religious republics or those who are communist in nature?  Should India utilize instruments understood by the nation with which she's trying to build bridges with, or continue to use democratic tools which seem to have little to no effect throughout history, at least during her post-independence period?  How does India efficiently deal with the growing threat of the Islamic-Communist nexus within her soil and outside her borders?  Active international engagement with hostile nations ought to be continues in nature, not just reactive after experienced setbacks. This will require a larger budget toward growing India’s diplomatic corps as well as active lobbying by the Indian diaspora in respective nations. 

The United Nations too needs lobbying from the Indian angle given China usually sides with Pakistan and against India.  If we look at increasing India’s pressure on Pakistan internationally, most likely the aid going to Pakistan will slowly dwindle, allowing non-governmental actors such as NGOs to step in and provide help and stability to those who have been marginalized by society.  This may not occur overnight but the strategy might work. As far as strikes and retaliation is concerned, the common public is rarely aware of such moves until after they've occurred.  However, the unity of the Indian public opinion including the diaspora seems to indicate that such a strike orchestrated by the Government of India would be more than welcomed.  Use of social media to show the reality in Kashmir, and education of the people on the history of Kashmir, such as the exodus of Hindu Pandits and miscalculations and bad policy-making post-Independence, might prove worthwhile in the age of hyper-liberalization regarding situations and circumstance.  In the short-run, better planning and coordination are warranted in moving large convoys, and petitioning for better protection such as body armor, vehicles and tanks to be included in the budget is important as well.  The Government of India has big objectives to accomplish with her neighbors, such as strengthening relations with Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal is crucial; maintaining dialogue with Iran and influence over the Maldives, contributing towards stability in Afghanistan too is a must. The need for a strong diplomatic core is important now more than ever.

History and Political Science research has shown that the public rallies behind the flag in moments of turmoil such national upheaval.  In this case, it would mean that the citizens of India would be more supportive of Prime Minister Modi and trust his judgement regarding Pulwama.  The incumbent therefore, has an advantage when national security is under attack.  Stability in government and the unwavering support of whichever party or entity is at the Center is usually preferred by the public in comparison to unnecessary political swaps during times of crisis.  Many of us remember our differences with U.S. President George Bush (43rd President), but the traumatic events during 9/11 served as a tipping point in his presidency, united everyone behind his agenda, including the war in Afghanistan and then fighting in Iraq. 

Though the public may forget the emotions, despair and loss felt on February 14, 2019 and onward, this extremely sad and violent attack on the CRPF may help keep the Modi government in power during upcoming elections in May 2019.  Also, this event may allow a usually cautious India to actively take an aggressive stance against terrorism, and not simply the usual reactive approach.  Families who lost members in the attack stated that they are proud of the family member's life which was lost and though they are devastated, have no regrets; this shows their pride in service to the country and resilience against evil forces.  Many of us who have looked upon this tragedy have further firmed up our belief that the code of dharma, or righteous conduct will prevail and that the laws of karma will spare no one. 

Anjali Kanojia, Ph.D. is a Political Scientist and views expressed here are her own.


अपि स्वर्णमयी लङ्का न मे लक्ष्मण रोचते जननी जन्मभूमिश्च स्वर्गादपि गरीयसी

 DR. ADITYANJEE
PRESIDENT,
THE COUNCIL FOR STRATEGIC AFFAIRS, NEW DELHI
 adityancsa@gmail.com

twitter@DrThinkTank

Pulwama is the New Pearl Harbor!

The dastardly malicious terrorist attack in Pulwama district of Jammu & Kashmir killing 42 CRPF soldiers is the latest calculated act of war by the Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) of the Jihadistan, aka Pakistan, to provoke civilian unrest in India prior to 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Attempt to disrupt India’s democracy is a brutal assault on the heart of democracy!

On February 14, around 42 CRPF personnel were killed in Jammu and Kashmir's Pulwama district in a Jihadi terror attack orchestrated by Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), a semi-military outfit nurtured by Pakistan. The CRPF convoy comprised of 78 buses in which around 2,500 personnel were travelling from Jammu to Srinagar. Around 42 martyred soldiers were in a bus, into which the terrorist rammed his vehicle with over 100 kg explosives. It was the deadliest attack on Indian security forces in Jammu & Kashmir. This is a well-planned and calculated military operation orchestrated by the ISI, an intelligence agency of Jihadistan and not of a lone wolf Aadil Ahmed.

Pulwama terrorist attack is a game changer for the psyche of the Indian nation! Time has come for the Government of India to take proper military and police action against the terrorists, their backers and the terror infra-structure in the entire state of Jammu & Kashmir. India must show her resolve as a hard state and not as a “lamb state” and take the challenge head-on. We must not be thwarted in our duty and dharma to protect our nation state from Pakistani onslaught owing to pressure from USA and UK, the historical backers of Pakistan. Being a rentier state, Pakistan has new sugar daddies including Saudi Arabia and China that will continue to blindly support the Jihadistan. Nothing must come in the way of action that is the need of the time now! Political leadership of India must show a firm resolve to decimate terrorism instead of looking towards the UNSC to declare certain individuals as terrorists. Any territory that harbors terrorists wanted in India must become a lawful target for military action and total annihilation.

Government of India should declare immediately a state of internal and external emergency in the state of Jammu and Kashmir owing to the law and order situation created post Pulwama Jihadi terror attack. Armed forces must be, now, given free hand to neutralize the terror assets of Jihadistan working under the garb of Hurriyat Conference. The decision to withdraw security cover to Hurriyat leaders is a welcome first step. The bank accounts of all Hurriyat leaders and their assets must be frozen immediately. The flow of money from Pakistan to terrorist organizations and terrorists through Hawala transactions must be stopped immediately so that stone-pelters are not paid to disrupt the security combing operations. The stone-pelters are agents of terrorists and an important part of the never-ending war being waged against the Indian state. The war like situation must be dealt with war-footing only. If the Lok-Sabha elections need to be postponed in the state of J&K, so be it. National security comes first, elections come later. The local elections in J& K can be delinked from the national elections. The state can remain under the President’s rule till the security situation is controlled satisfactorily and all the strategic assets of ISI and Jihadistan are completely eradicated from the soil of J&K in its entirety. Pakistan financed Hurriyat leadership must be arrested and sent to Tihar jail while the military combing operations take place in the J&K. After the successful completion of national general elections in 2019, the six J&K Lok Sabha seats can go for polling at a later more convenient date when security forces can be freed up for election duties.

Military action must deploy a massive and overwhelming force that should lead to an end objective accomplished in sight. The Line of Control (LoC) is not a holy cow and security operations must be taken across the LoC. Military action must decapitate the Jihadi Leadership based across the LoC in the Jihadistan-Occupied Kashmir (JOK) using killer drones. All the terror infra-structure, Jihadi training camps, terror launch pads, military assets of state sponsored actors, ammunition depots, ordinance factories, and civilian infra-structure in permanent support of Jihadi operations in the Jihadistan-Occupied part of J& K must be destroyed by precision airstrikes, killer drones and hypersonic missiles. The legitimate targets for military action and aerial bombardment include power plants, military hospitals, water plants, military bases and other supportive infra-structures including terrorist launch pads, bridges, airports, military runways and highways that transport military supplies across the JOK. Muzaffarabad is an appropriate target for military action and retaliation for providing financial backing, political cover and material support to terror organizations. The same holds true for the CPEC infrastructure being developed and militarily deployed in the JOK by Pakistan. Government of India would not be violating any international law or treaty by taking law and order actions in Indian territories under adverse possession by the Jihadi forces across the LoC. Under international law, India has every right to self-defense. Entire state of Jammu & Kashmir including Gilgit and Baltistan are part of India. Indian security forces have every right to go anywhere in the state of J&K under international and national law.

Revocation of the most favored nation (MFN) status is the first action in a series of economic sanctions against Pakistan. We must impose strong economic costs on Pakistan both bilaterally as well as regionally. Pakistani artists and players must not be allowed to earn money in India. No more medical visas to Pakistanis for free treatment in Indian hospitals should be granted. The flow of water to Jihadistan from the six rivers originating in J& K must stop during the war situation. If the diplomatic relations have to be downgraded or severed, so be it. We must recall out High commissioner from Islamabad and send packing Pakistani High commissioner as persona non grata (PNG).

ISI is punching too much above its weight regionally by having simultaneous terror operations in India, Afghanistan and Iran by its state sponsored proxy actors and strategic assets. On February 13, a total of 27 members of Revolutionary Guard Corps were killed after an explosive-laden vehicle targeted the bus which was ferrying the military personnel in Khash-Zahedan sector of Sistan-Baluchistan province in south-eastern Iran.  The Iranian bombing also injured 17 others. According to Iranian media, Jaish-al-Adl, a separatist militant group claimed responsibility for the deadly assault.

While the Government of India has the immediate obligation to take stern and effective counter-military action to respond to this latest attack in the asymmetrical war by thousand cuts; time has come for a regional approach to neutralize the Jihadistan by a three-way pincer like military movement by the three countries directly affected by the fountainhead of Jihad. These three countries located in South-West Asia are namely India, Afghanistan and Iran. A common military alliance for the tactical purpose of defeating Jihadi forces once for all is in the strategic interests of all the three countries that are ancient civilizational brothers. India and Afghanistan have had civilizational and matrimonial alliances from the time of Mahabharata more than five thousand years ago. India and Iran are the two civilizational nations torn asunder by the colonial machinations of the British empire that created a wedge state of Jihadistan, aka Pakistan, dividing the land-based access between India and Iran. Government of India must offer bilateral Friendship and mutual assistance treaties to both Afghanistan and Iran. As the US starts abandoning Afghanistan, under Trump, there is going to be a security vacuum in Afghanistan. Pakistan will continue to use Taliban proxies to acquire strategic depth in Afghanistan. The strategic partnership agreement (SPA) with Afghanistan signed in October 2011 needs to be upgraded to include military, mutual defense and security cooperation. India will need to develop an Army and an Airforce base in Afghanistan, having invested $3 billion in civilian reconstruction of Afghanistan. Both President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Dr. Abdullah Abdullah should have no hesitation in signing a bilateral friendship and mutual defense assistance treaty with India for next ninety-nine years. This should be followed by negotiations of a trilateral regional security framework involving India, Afghanistan and Iran (IAI). Such regional security framework must allow Indian armed forces access to land bases in Afghanistan and use of Chabahar port as a naval base for security and maritime action against Pakistan. India has to be in the driver’s seat this time to safeguard her national and regional geo-strategic interests without looking for permission to act from Washington, DC, New York, Geneva or from London! Pulwama is the new Pearl Harbor for the modern day India. The entire world must understand this!

अपि स्वर्णमयी लङ्का न मे लक्ष्मण रोचते जननी जन्मभूमिश्च स्वर्गादपि गरीयसी DR. ADITYANJEE PRESIDENT, THE COUNCIL FOR STRATEGIC AFFAIRS, NEW DELHI

adityancsa@gmail.com

twitter@DrThinkTank

China’s MTCR Envy, Pakistan’s Oedipus complex and India’s Road to the NSG

  Jul 05, 2016

  Dr. Adityanjee

https://www.myind.net/china-mtcr-envy-pakistan-oedipus-complex-and-india-road-nsg

China’s recent dragon dance to block India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) by hook or crook has brought out interesting geo-political insights. China’s fig-leaf of rhetoric of “principled adherence to the international laws” is just that, a fig-leaf, because China has never adhered to the spirit of international law whether it is UNCLOS or the NSG or the NPT itself. China is currently in violation of the NSG rules by building additional nuclear reactors at Chashma, Pakistan without seeking formal NSG exemption or waiver. China has been the worst horizontal as well vertical proliferator of nuclear weapons having been the fountain-head of the CHIPNOKISS nuclear proliferation network. Chinese nuclear weapons designs showed up in Libya when that country turned in the nuclear program documents to IAEA.

China had doubled down its efforts to hyphenate India with its “all-weather friend” Pakistan regarding India’s entry into NSG in cahoots with Pakistan. China articulated three main pseudo-arguments against India’s entry into the NSG; mainly that India is not a signatory to the NPT of 1968 and allowing India to join will send a wrong message to the non-proliferation agenda, that India’s entry will disturb the strategic balance in Indian sub-continent and will further encourage Pakistan to take more desperate measures to seek strategic parity with India and lastly that the NSG should have criteria-based for enlargement of membership for non-NPT members instead of making country-specific decisions.

On one hand China stated that India is not ready to join NSG simultaneously giving hints that China would allow India’s entry to NSG provided its Asian concubine Pakistan is given the same privilege. China wants to use the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) “model” for joint and simultaneous entry of both India and Pakistan into the international diplomatic groups in order to continue hyphenation of India with Pakistan in the international arena. China maneuvered this strategy successfully in the SCO summit at Tashkent, Uzbekistan on June 23-24^th 2016 because it has controlling voice in the SCO.

After the Seoul NSG meeting was over, other deeper geo-political reasons for China’s refusal to budge became obvious. China became a member of the NSG in May 2004 while it applied for the membership of the MTCR, the same year. China’s membership of the MTCR was denied because of international concerns about China’s proliferation of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. Weeks before the October 2004 MTCR meeting, the US had imposed proliferation sanctions on eight Chinese companies. India became the 35^th member of the MTCR on June 27th 2016 and China is now green with envy.
China openly argued that India has just negotiated for last eight years for entry to the NSG while China has waited for more than ten years for entry to the MTCR without success! Implication is that India has to wait several more years for the NSG membership like China has waited for the MTCR. China is afraid that India within the MTCR might block China’s membership efforts to be part of the MTCR which it has desperately sought. China is using India’s membership application for the NSG as a double-bargaining chip or a quid quo pro for China’s own admission to the MTCR and Pakistan’s membership of the NSG.

Chinese hostility towards India is superbly reflected in a recent editorial in the state-run Communist Party English language mouth piece the Global Times, lecturing “Indian nationalists” saying “they should learn how to behave themselves” and name-calling Indians as “self-centered and self-righteous people”!

Pakistan’s perfidy:

Pakistan’s National Security Advisor Sartaj Aziz and other government functionaries have openly gloated over the fact that Pakistan in cahoots with China was able to kill India’s membership to the NSG. PM Nawaz Sharif reportedly wrote to 17 countries exhorting them to block India’s entry into the NSG. At the same time, Pakistan has started breast-beating that it is being discriminated against India in the NSG membership.

What should the US do?

Unfortunately, prior to the June 2016 meeting of the NSG in Seoul, Korea most of the heavy -lifting was done by India and the Indian PM Narendra Modi. Though the US made supportive and positive statements, the performance of the team Obama-Kerry was no match to the standards set by the team Bush-Rice in 2008. If Obama-Kerry team had emulated the example set by Bush-Rice team, and had worked the phones personally, the outcome might have been different. If President Obama wants to leave his foreign policy legacy shining for the posterity, he will have to work very hard by the end of the year to have a special meeting of the NSG convened by December of 2016 and get India’s membership approved without hyphenating it to Pakistan’s last minute application for NSG membership sponsored by the rogue Chinese regime.

What should be India’s response?

The Government of India should disregard the motivated and partisan domestic criticism about the so-called foreign policy failure. On June 2^nd 2016, India had already pipped China by acceding to the International Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation, aka, The Hague Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation (HCOC). In the month of June 2016, India got entry into the HCOC, the SCO and the MTCR.  The MTCR membership will allow India to buy high-end missile technology and predator drones from the US while strengthening its joint ventures with Russia on missile development and research.
India should continue to work in tandem with the US, Mexico, Japan and Australia to get the NSG membership closed by the end of the 2016. A panel for informal consultations on India’s membership headed by Argentine ambassador Rafael Grossi has already been set up by the NSG. Both Mexico and Australia have argued for a special session which the US government has supported. It would require intense Indian diplomatic outreach to the dissenting countries including New Zealand, South Africa, Brazil, Austria and Switzerland. India should let the US work on two countries namely, China and Turkey. Turkey is part of the Islamic brotherhood of Pakistan and would continue to place road-blocks for India on behest of Pakistan. Sooner the Government of India understands it, the better it would be for eventual success. The only country that can exert pressure on China and Turkey is the US.

Simultaneously, India should work towards picking up the low-hanging fruits of the memberships of the Wassenaar Arrangement on Export Controls for Conventional Arms and Dual-Use Goods and Technologies and the Australia Group on export control to prevent spread of chemical weapons. China is not a member of either of these export control groups.  India should formally seek the entry before China becomes members of these two export control arrangements. The Indian diplomatic juggernaut should not end there. India must convince the Obama regime, once for all, about genuinely supporting India’s membership of the APEC instead of providing mere lip-service. Both the US and India must also prepare for possible Chinese opposition to India’s membership in the APEC in 2016. President Obama has a golden opportunity to leave a foreign policy legacy by ending India’s diplomatic isolation by calling the Chinese bluff and organizing a special meeting of the NSG to approve India’s membership of the NSG.

- See more at: https://www.myind.net/china-mtcr-envy-pakistan-oedipus-complex-and-india-road-nsg#.dpuf

 

अपि स्वर्णमयी लङ्का न मे लक्ष्मण रोचते जननी जन्मभूमिश्च स्वर्गादपि गरीयसी

DR. ADITYANJEE
PRESIDENT,
THE COUNCIL FOR STRATEGIC AFFAIRS, NEW DELHI
adityancsa@gmail.com
twitter@DrThinkTank

Supporting India's Entry to The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)

This article originally was published on June 23rd 2016 on the http://www.realcleardefense.com/

http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/06/23/supporting_indias_entry_to_the_nuclear_suppliers_group_nsg_109473.html

The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) is a 48-nation exclusive export control regime dedicated to curbing nuclear arms proliferation while promoting safe international nuclear commerce for civil nuclear energy. After receiving a country-specific waiver for the India–United States Civil Nuclear Agreement from the NSG in 2008, most western nations advocated for India’s inclusion into the NSG, even Russia has expressed unconditional support for India. The sole outlier for the major powers remains China, though China could benefit from supporting India’s membership.

Instead, China has spearheaded a diplomatic campaign to thwart India’s entry into the NSG. Doubling down on efforts to link India with China’s all-weather friend Pakistan, China has grasped at rationales to prevent India’s NSG membership.

China has articulated three main pseudo-arguments against India’s entry into the NSG.  The first is that India is not a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT) of 1968 and allowing India to join does not comport with the greater non-proliferation agenda. Also, India’s entry might disturb the strategic balance in the Indian sub-continent, further encouraging Pakistan to take more desperate measures to seek strategic parity with India.  Lastly, China argues that the NSG should be based on specific criteria, rather than selectively choosing suitable nations for entry.

On all three counts, China is using clever sophistry to block India’s long overdue entry into the NSG. Whereas the roots of China’s obstructionist view stems from China’s strategic insecurity and fears of another rising Asian nation in the international geo-political theatre.

Let us discuss China’s pseudo-arguments point by point. France’s NSG membership, in 1975, despite not being a signatory of the NPT until 1992, thus creating precedence for a non-signatory of NPT becoming a member of the NSG. China’s second argument, again fallacious, attempting to adjoin Pakistan’s nuclear program with that of India. Pakistan’s aggressive assertions regarding the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons against India, is a vast departure from India’s peaceful and defensive nuclear posture. Particularly considering India’s need for nuclear energy to support a burgeoning economy and population, and to minimize the use of fossil fuels to support current climate change initiatives.

Currently, there are only four countries that are non-signatories to the NPT: India, Israel, Pakistan and South Sudan. North Korea, having withdrawn from NPT is obviously not a candidate for NSG.  Israel and South Sudan are not seeking NSG membership, leaving just India and Pakistan. India and Pakistan have starkly contrasting non-proliferation records. Pakistan and China’s nuclear cooperation lacks a great deal of transparency, and is obviously a mix of civilian AND military applications, which should be cause for alarm.

China, worried about growing India-U.S. strategic cooperation, sees Pakistan as a mechanism to contain India in a perpetual regional conflict. China provided Pakistan with 50 kg of free weapons grade HEU and allowed Pakistan to test its first nuclear weapon of Chinese design in 1990 at China’s own Lop Nor nuclear test range.

Essentially, China is a rising hegemon that can not countenance a rising India, systematically placing roadblocks to India’s entry into the diplomatic world, commensurate with India’s size and economic maturity. The time has come for the 5th generation leadership of communist to do the prudent thing by diplomatically supporting India’s entry into the NSG. China should remember that India had supported communist China’s entry into the UNSC as a permanent member in 1971 despite having bilateral border issues. Diplomatic hegemony by China cannot arrest a rising India’s entry to NSG, UNSC, APEC or any other international body. Continued attempts to limit India’s participation in the international community will actually cause China harm rather than goodwill.

China was a brotherly country to India until the occupation, and eventual annexation, of Tibet. The following attack on India in 1962 is still ingrained in the minds of the international community. India’s industrial base and growing economy is on pace to rival that of both the United States and China.  If China wants the 21st century to be remembered as an Asian century, China must learn to recognize and accept India’s vital role.

China as a nation must do some self-introspection regarding its hegemonic behavior and expansionist policies since 1949.  China has no allies worth naming on the twin issues of its imperialistic behavior in the East and South China Seas. Peoples’ Republic of China can gain immense goodwill from a peaceful and rising India if it stops obstructing India’s entry into the NSG on June 24th 2016 in Seoul, South Korea.

Dr. Adityanjee is the President of the Council for Strategic Affairs, New Delhi, India

Related Topics: NPT, NSG, Nuclear Suppliers Group, Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Pakistan, India, China

Published Originally on June 23rd 2016 on Real Clear Defense at the following url:

http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/06/23/supporting_indias_entry_to_the_nuclear_suppliers_group_nsg_109473.html

अपि स्वर्णमयी लङ्का न मे लक्ष्मण रोचते जननी जन्मभूमिश्च स्वर्गादपि गरीयसी

 DR. ADITYANJEE
PRESIDENT, THE COUNCIL FOR STRATEGIC AFFAIRS,
NEW DELHI

twitter@DrThinkTank

India, Taiwan and China Triangle: Opportunity for Strategic Balancing

http://www.councilforstrategicaffairs.blogspot.com/2016/01/india-taiwan-and-china-triangle.html

   Jan 27, 2016

   Dr. Adityanjee

History, despite Francis Fukuyama’s prediction of it having ended, was made on Saturday, January 16th 2016  in the  “Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu”,  aka Chinese Taipei, aka Republic of China or the de facto Republic of Taiwan. Tsai Ing-Wen of the Democratic Progressive Party was elected President with 56% of the vote defeating Kuomintang’s Eric Chu. Besides, electing its first ever female president from the Democratic Progressive Party, the citizens of this island nation thoroughly defeated the President Ma Ying-Jeau’s Kuomintang Party for excessively placatory and deferential postures towards Beijing. The people of the Republic of Taiwan democratically slapped the Communist China on the face despite its repeated catastrophic warnings. History was also made because per analysts, “A new Taiwanese identity won” in the elections. A new generation with pro-independence mind gave a resounding defeat to the status quoist KMT. The 59 years old Tsai, a former law Professor is an alumnus of the University of Cambridge. She made the history as being elected the first female leader of an Asian nation without having any prior family connections or following the path of dynastic succession.

It was the 6th direct election for the President of Taiwan since 1988 when Taiwan became a de facto and de jure democracy.  The Democratic Progressive Party, also secured a majority in the legislature, marking the first time that the DPP can govern alone with over a 50% majority. Results on the Central Election Commission’s website showed Ms. Tsai receiving 6.9 million votes, around 56% of the total, with her main rival, KMT candidate Eric Chu, getting 3.8 million, or 31%. A third-party candidate took the remainder. It is the first time the ruling KMT and its allies have lost control of the legislature since Chiang Kai-shek moved his Nationalist government across the Taiwan Strait after its defeat on the mainland by Communist forces in 1949.

Government of India should send a large official delegation for inauguration of the President-elect Tsai on May 20th 2016. India needs to exploit this democratic opportunity of government transition in Taiwan to engage it strategically besides deepening the economic and mercantile ties. Over the years, this analyst has made case for deeper economic, mercantile and strategic engagement with Taiwan in an effort to balance Communist China (1, 2). India’s civil society and the hyperactive NGOs need to make their presence felt in the Republic of Taiwan. There are several levels at which Indian civil society should engage the Taiwanese people. Since our ruling party the BJP has party to party relations with the Communist Party of China and has sent several party delegations to China, it should seriously consider sending an official party delegation for the inaugural of President Tsai. From a more pragmatic perspective, the BJP delegation should consist of former heavy weight cabinet ministers like Yashwant Sinha, Dr. Subramanian Swami and Dr. Arun Shourie. Building party to party relations with the Democratic Progressive Party will serve India’s long-term strategic interests.

The easy way forward would be for the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI) and the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) to send large delegations to drum up more business, investments and joint ventures with their Taiwanese counter-parts. Indian business houses must invest in the tourism and hospitality sector in Taiwan especially in the strategically important island of Penghu in the Taiwan Straits.  Newer business entities like Patanjali Yoga Trust should consider exporting their organic consumer items in Taiwan.

Besides the business leaders, Indian Think-tanks, civil society, cultural and religious organizations should step up to the plate to foster people to people relations. Dharmic organizations should foster the Buddhist-Hindu brotherhood using Dharma-Dhamma paradigm. Since the time of Asoka, the great, India has exercised cultural and Dharmic diplomacy. Perhaps, His Holiness Dalai Lama should grace the occasion of inaugural function of the President-elect Tsai with his divine presence and blessings. In the same analogy, one of the Shankaracharyas should be persuaded to travel to Taiwan for blessing the new woman president of that nation! Organizations like Dharmacharya Sabha, Art of Living and Bharat Swabhiman have a role to play in promoting Yoga, meditation and other instruments of India’s soft power in Taiwan. Even ex-servicemen organizations should be encouraged to send delegations to Taiwan for the presidential inaugural.

India needs to focus on developing religious tourist facilities in the islands of Matsu and Penghu especially shrines to the Mazu (Matsu) Guardian Goddess of the sea whom Taiwanese revere. Because Taiwan is an island and relies on the sea for sustenance, the “sea goddess” Mazu (Matsu) is very important for the seafaring Taiwanese people.  Taiwanese and Chinese Goddess Guanyin (Kuanyin) began her divine existence and origin in India as the male bodhisattva Avalokiteshwara, but is usually described in Chinese communities as the Buddhist goddess of mercy. Worshipped by people of Chinese origin – including many who don’t explicitly identify themselves as Buddhist – since the 12th century, her full name is translated as, ‘she who hears all of mankind’s cries’. Reciprocally, India should hard-sell the Buddhist circuit for the Taiwanese tourists to India. Owing to historical Indian cultural influences in the East Asia, we need to remember and reinforce our soft power diplomacy while engaging Taiwan.

We both nations are the legitimate trading partners in the World Trade Organization (WTO). Chinese Taipei has been a member of the WTO since 1 January 2002. Taiwan is also a member of the Asia Pacific Economic Conference (APEC) where India’s application is pending for membership for the last twenty years (3). Taiwan is an aspiring candidate country for membership of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). Officially, since we have trade and commerce going on with the Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu (Chinese Taipei), the official Indian delegation should be headed by the Commerce Minister or by the Finance Minister. Communist China has intense trade and investment relations with Taiwan, so it can’t possibly object if India adopts the same course (2). India must deepen economic engagement with Taiwan on a war footing. Taiwanese investments should be sought aggressively and tapped voraciously for the #Make-In-India Campaign. Cash-rich Taiwan is sitting on foreign exchange reserves of $425 billion as of December 31st 2015. Instead of letting this money be invested across the straits in the Communist China, India should raise the economic costs for China by providing an attractive alternative destination for the Taiwanese surplus capital for investment in India’s infrastructure.

The only country that currently exports arms to the Republic of Taiwan is the US. Taiwan is desperately trying to modernize its armed forces in view of continued military threat from the Communist China. India is trying to enter the lucrative arms export market. India has 3-4 defense items/armament systems ready in its inventory that can be exported to Taiwan in the near future. These armaments include the Tejas fighter aircrafts, Dhruva attacks helicopters, Arjun battle tanks and Brahmos hypersonic missiles. Taiwan would be delighted to buy Indian hardware for its defense. India should also take future orders from Taiwan for supply of frigates and submarines. Since Communist China is exporting and supplying arms to Pakistan and building its capacity continuously, we should do the same with Taiwan.

India’s strategic establishment must adopt diplomatic and strategic pragmatism and must learn to strike when the iron is hot! Our soft power and hard power must be complimentary to each other for sake of furthering our strategic interests.

Bibliography:

1. Tibet Today, Taiwan Tomorrow? By Dr. Adityanjee 
   http://www.ipcs.org/article/china/tibet-today-taiwan-tomorrow-2531.html

2. India Taiwan Strategic Economic Partnership
   by Dr. A. Adityanjee - http://www.boloji.com/index.cfm?md=Content&sd=Articles&ArticleID=11685#sthash.d448E8FH.dpuf

3. India, APEC and the US by Dr. Adityanjee
   https://www.myind.net/india-apec-and-us

- See more at: https://www.myind.net/india-taiwan-and-china-triangle-opportunity-strategic-balancing#.dpuf

http://www.councilforstrategicaffairs.blogspot.com/2016/01/india-taiwan-and-china-triangle.html

अपि स्वर्णमयी लङ्का न मे लक्ष्मण रोचते जननी जन्मभूमिश्च स्वर्गादपि गरीयसी

DR. ADITYANJEE
PRESIDENT, THE COUNCIL FOR STRATEGIC AFFAIRS, NEW DELHI
adityancsa@gmail.com
twitter@DrThinkTank

Talk, Don't Trust

http://councilforstrategicaffairs.blogspot.in/2016/01/talk-dont-trust.html

While intensive post-mortem reports are being written by self-proclaimed  strategic experts about the Government of India's supposed (mis-) handling of the terrorist attack on the Pathankot airbase, not much has been written on the antecedents of the terror attack and the suggested future course of action. Instead of continuing to self-flagellate and indulge in yet more chest beatings, the focus should be on the way forward for the nation to deal with the continuing terror threats that challenge national security.

Looking at the recent history, it was expected that the state-supported actors of the Pakistani security establishment [read ISI/GHQ/Army/Jihadi complex] will strike soon after PM Modi's sudden and unplanned stop-over in Lahore for birthday and wedding celebrations. It was not anticipated that the terrorists will strike so soon. By that brilliantly staged photo-op meant for the consumption of international community, India's reasonable attempts to engage civilian Pakistani PM Nawaz Sharif were appreciated all over the world. There was a subtle signal to the Pakistani security  establishment [Read General Rahil Sharif ] that India will continue to engage the civilian leaders and civil society of Pakistan and not emulate the despicable behavior of the US Government in wining and dining the uninvited military leader as it did in November of 2015.  The brief Lahore stop-over did achieve its ostensible goal reassuring everyone that India is not a war-mongering nation and diplomacy will be given full chance while dealing with Pakistan. General Rahil Sharif by sending  Jaish-e-Muhammed terrorists to Pathankot airbase reinforced the notion that Army with the country called Pakistan will not allow peace with India at any cost. The raison d' etre for this Army that controls the country called Pakistan, is anti-India scare-mongering.  Any putative move towards peace with India generates survival instinct and behavior patterns so as to disrupt the gains of the peace overtures.

All that is history and no amount of intellectual contortions and gymnastics will change the sequence of events in resolving the terror attack. What matters most is India's posture in dealing with the terror threat and response to complex geo-political situation that the Government of the day is handling very adroitly. US has not decided to change its policy regarding Pakistan despite it having achieved the honor of being terror central of the world. US  will continue to coddle Pakistan. Obama administration will continue to label terrorism as violent extremism as if it will magically disappear by changing the name. Pakistani backers like China will continue to hold UN to ransom by not allowing universal acceptance of a definition of the terrorism. The OIC group led by Saudi Arabia will continue to support Sunni/Salafi/Wahabi terror groups world-wide while claiming to be supporting anti-terror operations. India must reconcile herself that it will remain alone in its fight against the Jihadi terror and will have to continue to fight her own battles single-handedly. - 

For any complex geo-political problem, the solution has to be multi-dimensional and well-thought out. Instead of reflexively calling off the Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue or instantaneously mounting a maximal military response the Government of India is advised to initiate a basket of well-calibrated responses in next few weeks to send a message across to Pakistan and to the international community in general that we mean business while we defend the security and sovereignty of India. Our responses need not be sequential and can be done in parallel as they may have more effectiveness if deployed concurrently. The hotline between the two PMs must continue to remain active as both will need to talk. 

A number of diplomatic responses, albeit symbolic, must be taken to express our displeasure at the terror attacks. First and foremost should be the pressure on Pakistani government to take prompt and meaningful punitive action against the state-supported entities and their Military backers. The foreign secretary level talks must be postponed till such action is taken. Meanwhile we can still talk to Pakistan but on NSA level to discuss the Pakistani efforts to control terror groups and attempts to prevent recurrence of similar attacks in future. Pakistan must be asked to submit a detailed action taken report during the NSA level talks. NSA  level terror talks can assure Pakistan that will jointly support them in taking punitive actions against terror groups hiding in their territory.

Meanwhile, a dimarche' must be sent to Pakistani High Commissioner to visit the MEA and hear our opinion about the this terror strike. We must consider declaring the Pakistani Army and Defense Attache' posted in New Delhi as a persona non-grata [PNG] as the evidence suggests clear cut involvement of Pakistani military in orchestrating this terror attack. India should recall her High Commissioner from Rawalpindi for further consultations while the Pakistani counter-part goes back leaving the diplomatic missions to be managed by the DCMs. Perhaps, one of the Pakistani consulates outside New Delhi must be closed as a retaliatory measure. These symbolic diplomatic responses from the tool-kit will send the message to Pakistani civilian leadership that while India continues to engage with them, they have an onus to take concrete action to satisfy Indian concerns. The MEA  and the PMO must convey to their counterparts in Pakistan that participation of the PM in the SAARC meeting later this year will be contingent upon satisfactory security environment in the Indian subcontinent in general and in Pakistan in particular.

On an international front, India must engage the UN  and the international community in taking common stance against terrorism. Freezing financial assets of terror backers and identifying Pakistani military handlers for international travel ban are reasonable steps that will help in generating an international coalition against terrorism. Granted that China will sabotage any such efforts and the US  will provide only lip-service. Most of the heavy lifting will have to be done by India by reaching out to all the civilized countries of the world in the next few months.

We must also engage regional countries for a united front against state-supported terrorism emanating from Pakistan. A formal forum for sub-regional mechanism for intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism activities should include countries like Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Bhutan [A.I.B.B]. A sub-regional summit against terror must be organized within next three months by the Government of India seeking harmonization and commonality of preventive approaches and response. This mechanism should subscribe to the mantra that terror attack on one country would be considered as terror  attack on all the four requiring joint response. At this stage all these 4 countries are facing with terror challenges of their own, notably with origins from Pakistan. We can continue to engage West and US diplomatically in an effort to reshape attitudes and opinions but action must start from the region. Later on, if needed China, Myanmar and Srilanka can be invited as observers for this anti-terror front.

Since India's economic leverage with Pakistan is minimal, we cannot rely on economic sanctions at this time. Yet symbolic economic sanctions will include suspension by India of the MFN [most favored nation]  status granted to Pakistan in mid-nineties following our accession to WTO. Any upgrade back to the MFN status should be subject to bilateral, reciprocation by Pakistan. India should fast-track the proposed Iran-India undersea gas pipeline instead of focusing on the TAPI pipeline as it will give economic dividends to Pakistan. India must not show any eagerness to sell electricity to Pakistan while we ourselves are a power-deficient nation. India must caution China about advisability of going ahead with CPEC construction activities in the POK which is Indian sovereign territory. In other words, without Indian participation and approval,  any construction in the CPEC segment in POK and northern territories will be an act of war against India. As part of our economic response, we must fast-track the development of the Chabahaar port in Iran giving us connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Covert action has to be re-deployed along with other appropriate measures to effective send a message to Pakistan. Pakistan has a weak soft under-belly in Baluchistan. Sectarian differences and divide in that country can also serve as a fertile soil for activities against Pakistani security establishment. India, unfortunately, gave up her strategic assets in Pakistan under the infamous Gujral doctrine. Time has come for India to re-establish her strategic assets in Pakistan and elsewhere including the West. India must encourage Afghanistan Government to promptly retaliate militarily against Pakistan for terror strikes against Indian consulates in Jalalabad and Mazar-e-Sharief. Initiating covert actions will act as a warranty against future terror attacks short of full-fledged military response. India must not hesitate to transfer offensive weapon capabilities to  Afghanistan for punitive strikes.

On a more muscular level, India should consider taking preparatory steps for a full-fledged military response if need be. The fact that Pakistan has tactical nuclear weapons should not deter us from taking an appropriate military response. We should not succumb to Pakistani nuclear blackmail and bluff. We should no longer agree to treated as punching bags. We should acquire killer drones from Israel while the DRDO is assigned money for fast-tracking a domestic predator drone development and deployment program. Having that precision strike capability, we should be able to target Maulana Hafiz Sayeed and Maulana Masood Azhar for surgical operations. We do have hypersonic, land-based Brahmos missiles that can be used for precision strikes against the headquarters of Jaish-e-Muhaamed, LET, Al Rashid Trust and similar terror organizations. Since the terror attacks in Gurdaspur and Pathankot breached the international borders we should consider surgical strikes against terror training camps in both POK and elsewhere in Pakistan.

A broad array of diplomatic and other options goes in support of policy of engagement with Pakistani civilian leadership while simultaneously containing and degrading the terror infra-structure in Pakistan with the help of sub-regional allies. It is important to talk to the civilian leadership but we don't have to trust the Pakistani Army/GHQ/ISI/Jihadi Terror Complex. Dialogue does not mean defeat. Engagement does not exclude containment. Both can go hand in hand. As Zalmay Khalilzad, Afghan-American diplomat  articulates it, we have to deploy CONGAGEMENT strategies against Pakistan.

अपि स्वर्णमयी लङ्का न मे लक्ष्मण रोचते जननी जन्मभूमिश्च स्वर्गादपि गरीयसी
DR. ADITYANJEE
PRESIDENT,
THE COUNCIL FOR STRATEGIC AFFAIRS, NEW DELHI
adityancsa@gmail.com
twitter@DrThinkTank