TALES FROM THE DRAGON KINGDOM: THE PRINCELINGS AND THE “SHE DRAGON”

TALES FROM THE DRAGON KINGDOM:

THE PRINCELINGS AND THE “SHE DRAGON”

DR. ADITYANJEE

Email: Adityancsa@gmail.com

2012 is the Year of the Dragon, the most favorable and revered sign in the 12-year Chinese zodiac.  Everyone in the Dragon Kingdom is presumably a descendent of the mythical Dragon. A lot of Chinese couples will plan birth of their progeny in the year of the Dragon. Apparently, a son born in the year of Dragon is endowed with intelligence, enterprise and self-control. The Dragon Kingdom will face "bigger challenges" in this year of the Dragon, including slowing down of the economy, burgeoning social unrest and the issue of succession. Transition of the 5^th generation of leaders of the Royal Dragonese Party will take place in the end of 2012 during the 18^th annual congress. When Hu Jintao became the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, the ubiquitous question was “Who is Hu?” The pertinent question in the year of the Dragon would be “Who is She?” 

Because when the “Who Dragon” steps down, the “She Dragon” will become the General Secretary in the CCP meeting at the end of year of the Dragon. Since 2008, the “She Dragon” has been groomed as the vice-President” and the vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission and the eventual successor to Hu Jintao. We are told that Xi JinPing, a 58 years old “Princeling” (son of one of the revolutionary hero General Xi Zhongxun) is “redder than the red” because he dedicated himself to the Marxist theory from early days in order to prosper in the communist party.  Princeling Xi reportedly joined the Communist party when his own illustrious father was in prison during the era of cultural revolution. An ethnic Han, and a native of Shaanxi Province, he was born on June 1^st 1953. He graduated from the School of Humanities and Social Sciences of the prestigious Tsinghua University, majoring in Marxist theory and ideological education. With an on-the-job postgraduate education, he has a doctorate degree, LLD. He joined the Chinese Communist Party in January 1974. Described as “extremely ambitious” and pragmatic, from the beginning Xi has focused his eyes on the “ultimate prize”. Married twice, he has one daughter. He does not drink, does not smoke and is not influenced by money and is the “Mr. Clean” of the Dragon Kingdom. Xi JinPing will eventually become the President of the Peoples' Republic of China in 2013. Most likely, Hu Jintao will remain as the Chairman of the Central Military Commission for a few years more before passing the ultimate baton to Xi.

Over a period of time, Chinese Communist Party has tried to inculcate internal party democracy while maintaining the supremacy of the Communist Party in the nation. One of the reasons is that most of the elderly leaders do not want to spend time in prison during the wars of succession that were the norm during the cultural revolution and again during the 1987-1989 period.  Therefore, orderly, pre-determined transition of leaders has been planned from the time when the 3^rd generation leaders took over. Instead of having a “supreme leader” like Mao or Deng, the leadership is collectively shared by the troika of General Secretary/President/Chairman of the Central Military Commission, the Speaker of the Parliament and the Prime Minister. The generation next is groomed for a period of four years under the tutelage of the reigning leadership. This gives each generation of new communist leaders eight years in executive office besides the four years in training, thereby ensuring continuity with transition. It is during the second four year of their term that the new leadership acquires “wings” and therefore feels “strong” enough to take bold and independent decisions with international ramifications. Each generation of leadership has enunciated their own grandiose theories starting from Mao (Marxist Leninist theory with Mao Ze Dong thought), Deng (Socialism with Chinese Characteristics), Jiang Zemin (The Theory of Three represents) and Hu (Peaceful Rise of China and Harmonious  Development). It is not clear as to what ideological theory Xi will enunciate once he is formally anointed as the supreme leader of the middle kingdom.

Like their counterparts in the Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea, Chinese Communist party has encouraged dynastic succession across generations albeit with a difference. No single dynasty is encouraged. The children of the revolutionary heroes, called the “Princelings” control various ministries and party departments collectively and enjoy enormous privileges and power. Most of them were born during the civil war in the Yanan city in Shaanxi province in northwest China. This elite, exclusive and secret club is also called ” the Children of Yanan” who meet at least once a year to deliberate on China's state of affairs while plotting their stronghold on the party and the nation. 

Xi reportedly has a strong belief that the Princelings are the true heirs of the revolutionary legacy of their parents’ generation and have the right to rule China. The Princelings had helped create the notorious Red Guards. Unlike his two predecessors, Xi JingPing has much stronger ties with the PLA. Any hopes of democratic reforms should be given up because of this sense of entitlement. The fact that his current wife is a celebrity folk singer and he was influenced by Buddhist philosophy during his earlier years are not the only redeeming facts. He may be more of an internationalist because he sent his only daughter to study at Harvard under a pseudonym. His sister is supposed to have lived in Canada and one of his brothers lived in the Hong Kong colony during the British rule. He will remain a cautious hyper-nationalist as reflected in his outbursts in Mexico in 2009 when under piling international pressure on China he stated: “Some foreigners with full bellies and nothing better to do engage in finger-pointing at us”. He was recently present with the diplomatic hoi polloi rubbing shoulders with the likes of Henry Kissinger on the 40th anniversary of Richard Nixon’s historic visit to China in 1972.  His international profile is being carefully crafted by arranging a US trip soon in February in the year of the Dragon.

Despite this seemingly “orderly transition”; factional fights continue. Xi was able to outsmart Hu Jintao and emerged as the front-runner to succeed Hu in the party congress in October 2007, overshadowing Hu’s protégé Li Keqiang. Perhaps, the 2012 succession drama will eventually bring mass purgings of Hu’s  protégés  under the garb of trials for corruption. Hu versus Zemin (Shanghai Clique) rivalry continues in the Chinese Communist party and with the departure of Hu Jintao, Jiang Zemin faction will exercise indirect powers through the Princeling Xi. Consequently, China will not be able to resolve bilateral and multi-lateral territorial disputes with its neighbors including India owing to the factional power struggles that will unfold mysteriously. During the recently concluded bilateral talks of special representatives, Chinese foreign ministry stated: "We believe the peaceful development of China and India is an opportunity for both sides and the whole world. With the joint efforts of the two sides, 2012 will be a year of greater and better exchanges and cooperation between China and India. The year 2012 will become a year of cooperation and development."  Pragmatically, there is unlikely to be any major initiative expected to resolve the boundary dispute under the first four years of Xi JingPing’s despite the recent signing of agreement on the establishment of a working mechanism on consultation and coordination on India-China boundary affairs.

WE FOCUS ON STRATEGIC ISSUES PERTAINING TO INDIA'S RISE AS A GLOBAL SUPER-POWER.

MILITARY BASES WITH “CHINESE CHARACTERISTICS” BY DR. ADITYANJEE

December 2011 was the epochal month during which the Chinese neo-imperialistic ambitions were  un-peeled very predictably like the layers of an onion. It started with a Chinese military delegation, headed by the Chinese Defense Minister General Liang Guanglie quietly visiting the Seychelles on December 1^st 2011. He signed a bilateral  agreement to set up a Chinese naval base in the Seychelles for counter-piracy operations. This was followed by Hu Jintao’s December 6^th pronouncement; while addressing the PLA Navy (PLAN) he said that PLAN should make “extended preparations for warfare in order to make greater contributions to safeguard national security”. The statement was immediately denounced by the US that demanded more transparency on Chinese intentions.  Chinese claimed misinterpretation of the original statement. Apparently, there is no equivalent word for transparency in Mandarin. Concept of transparency is “Greek” to the Chinese  political & military establishment. Ridiculing the Western criticism, one Chinese analyst Mao Xiaogang made a bellicose statement: ”It is common to see some irresponsible hype and smears around the world aimed at China’s military development, especially the so-called transparency matter. China’s announcement at such an opportune moment is transparent enough”.

The “outing” of the Chinese naval base by the Indian press on December 12^th  forced  China to issue a “non-denial” denial. China acknowledged the establishment of a “supply and recuperation facility” in the Seychelles. The Seychelles comprises of 115 islands and is the smallest African country with a population of 85,000 and an army of only 500. The Seychelles government acknowledged the establishment of  a  Chinese naval base ostensibly to crack down on piracy. The Chinese Ministry of Defense tried to  sanitize this  in a statement: “According to escort needs and the needs of other long-range missions, China will consider seeking supply facilities at appropriate harbors in the Seychelles or other countries”. China acknowledged that it already has “re-supply facilities” at harbors in Dijbouti, Oman & Yemen since 2008 when China sent its first naval convoy to Gulf of Aden apparently in an anti-piracy measure. 

China repeatedly stressed that this move did not equate to establishing overseas military bases. China has used a fig-leaf of anti-piracy operations to cover the nakedness its strategic ambitions. It is not going to stop at the Seychelles alone. China plans to establish military bases in other countries also. Despite Chinese insistence that China would not station its troops abroad, we see a pattern of China expressing commercial or economic interests in a territory (land, sea, air, space) as Chinese asset, sending PLA soldiers there to safeguard its commercial interests and claiming sovereignty subsequently.  Professor Shen Dingli from Fudan University has openly advocated the need for China to establish military bases overseas. 

Analogous to  the Japanese euphemism of “comfort women” for Korean sex slaves during the World War II, China calls its military bases as “supply and recuperation facilities”. Of Course, Chinese overseas military bases are very different from the US or  Russian military bases because they are indeed part of “extended preparations for warfare in order to make greater contributions to safeguard national security”. Per Chinese rhetoric these supply facilities will never be used for aggression because they have the essential “Chinese characteristic” of serving the Chinese core interests of safeguarding the “divine” Chinese Ocean sovereignty in the Indian Ocean!

String of Pearls is not fervent imagination of delirious minds of hypercritical analysts. It is a long-term strategy that is sequentially unfolding. The façade of trade-oriented commercial ports will be replaced by loud, vociferous and triumphant announcements of China’s core interests requiring conversion to naval bases. There was no “objective evidence” that the China’s first aircraft carrier when purchased in 1998 from Ukraine  would be deployed as a naval asset. China had deceptively and fraudulently claimed  that it would be converted into a floating casino!  Currently the Chinese aircraft carrier is undergoing sea trials. So  much for the “so-called transparency issues”. Although  China has rejected Pakistani exhortations to “please develop a naval base at the Gwadar port”; that is bound to happen in next few years. Chinese “peace and harmony”  rhetoric and its strategic actions are always diametrically opposite.  The predictable pattern is that of initial stonewalling, hostile denials, indignant & abusive comments followed by gradual  but late triumphant proclamations of  Chinese core interests demanding strong action against the enemies.

Pursuing modernization, China has become de facto number two naval power. The PLA navy’s goal is to have a “Thousand Ships Navy”. This  stated “TSN” Goal is to further Chinese hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region and exploit the mineral & hydrocarbon wealth in the international seabeds. China has already signed an agreement with the UN backed International Seabed Authority to gain exclusive rights to explore poly-metallic sulfide ore deposits in 10,000 square-kilometers of international seabed in Indian Ocean for the next 15 years. China will use its naval base in the Seychelles to claim sovereignty over the Indian Ocean using this contract as the legal basis. If Chinese creeping pattern of expanding its sovereign territory is genuinely understood, it would not be surprising if in the year 2112, China claims the entire Indian Ocean as its sovereign territory and may rename it as  “South Tibet Sea” analogous to China’s characterization of Arunachal Pradesh as Southern Tibet.

China is a rising hegemon that is no longer ashamed of asserting its imperialistic ambitions.  China’s list of core interests is rapidly expanding.   Assertion of China’s Ocean sovereignty as a new core interest issue has been vociferously advocated in last few years. China has disputes with the ASEAN countries about the ownership various atolls and islands and their hydrocarbon and mineral potential. It refuses to deal with these claims in multi-lateral fora and wants to bully the smaller countries bilaterally. China also warned India against exploring hydrocarbon drilling in collaboration with Vietnam in South China Sea. China’s blockade of Taiwan strait in 1996 and raining missiles across the strait is an indicator of Chinese strategic response pattern.  In a  belligerent article published in the Beijing Daily, Mao Xiaogang articulates this: The PLA Navy will forever act in accordance with its duty in regard to China’s Ocean sovereignty and interests with no fear and flinch upon any interference and will ensure the safety of national interests by virtue of its own distinct views and powerful strength”.

Historically, India never shared land border with the middle kingdom till 1949. In ancient and medieval times, Indo-Tibetan border was very porous and was part of the great Indic religious civilization. While Tibetan Buddhist monks and lamas visited northern India for spiritual enlightenment in the Land of Buddha,  Hindus never needed Chinese visa for pilgrimage to Mouth Kailash & Man Sarovar Lake.  Tibet once was under the suzerainty of the Dogra Maharaja of Jammu & Kashmir whose official title included the “Deshaadhipati of Tibet”. Since the Chinese occupation and annexation of Tibet in the nineteen fifties, entire Tibet has become a vast Chinese military garrison. 

Indo-Tibetan Border has been heavily fortified and militarized by China. China has built permanent military-cum-civilian infrastructure in the so-called Autonomous Tibetan Region (ATR) which should be aptly called China-Occupied Tibet (COT).  While India foolishly chose to leave Indo-Tibetan border undeveloped in both eastern and western sectors to “deter” aggression, China has constructed military barracks and motorable roads that can move tanks and heavy armored vehicles along the entire Into-Tibetan border. All this so-called civilian infrastructure development in the occupied Tibet has military applications. China has built five air ports along the Indo-Tibetan borders.  The Beijing-Lhasa rail-road connects the Chinese heartland with the Occupied Tibet and has military significance besides being a tourist attraction. In the event of hostilities, this rail-road would not be carrying tourists or the western war correspondents. China further plans to extend this Beijing-Lhasa rail-road into Nepal and indeed very close to Indian borders. PLA routinely conducts high altitude military exercises  in the occupied Tibet. There are frequent incursions of the PLA soldiers inside Indian territory across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with repeated damage to Indian civilian & military infra-structure in both Eastern and Western sectors. 

Since Pakistan ceded part of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir to China in 1961, it has built the Korrakoram highway to facilitate Chinese access to warm water port of Karachi. Though China has denied it consistently, PLA has at least 10,000 troops stationed in the Pak-Occupied Kashmir (POK) in the northern territories. These developments amount to China de facto establishing an army base in the POK. Presence of Chinese troops in POK indeed poses a military and security threat to India as POK is an illegally occupied territory by Pakistan.

India is going through internal political turmoil, uncertainty and leadership crisis that is not conducive to long-term strategic planning. India’s current political leadership has been in deep slumber and has been totally unresponsive to China’s persistent and purposeful hegemonic behavior in India’s sphere of influence. A situation has developed whereby India is forced to react to Chinese aggressive postures by adopting an ostrich like approach. India has either denied strategic significance to Chinese moves or tried to minimize the significance by buying the Chinese fibs for explanation. The Prime Minister denied last year the possibility of China attacking India under any conceivable circumstance. Ministry of External affairs has become an excellent spokesperson for mouthing Chinese core interests. Indian Defense Ministry has repeated denied about the Chinese incursions into Indian territory. This defeatist mindset was amply demonstrated by yet another Pavlovian denial of geo-political reality that India and China are strategic adversaries by Shiv Shankar Menon, the NSA, who claimed that such determinism is “misplaced”.  

Admittedly, in the bilateral and multilateral diplomatic dances with the Dragon, India’s political leadership and bureaucratic mandarins may be forced to indulge in verbal hyper-gymnastics;  India’s security establishment & non-governmental strategic community must not allow the repetition of the strategic blindness India suffered from in the nineteen fifties and sixties.  Owing to India’s vulnerabilities and current strategic weakness, the Government of India continues to appease China while secretly hoping that the numerous strategic threats posed by an aggressive and expansionist China will somehow disappear. Some strategic experts have rightly cautioned that the carefully choreographed Dragonese Dance may culminate in a full-fledged attack on India while India’s political leadership and Defense Ministry establishment are doing their level best to purposefully humiliate India’s Chief of Army and thereby demoralize the Indian soldiers. The public display of the “dirty linen” about the Army chief’s date of birth issue by the Indian defense ministry will embolden China to strike at India, yet again, at an opportune moment just like in 1962.

For the last several years the Indian Defense Ministry has been in a persistent vegetative state leading to strategic asymmetry with China. Future Governments of India will have to rectify this inertia and take corrective measures to increase India’s comprehensive national power.  The self-induced coma of the Indian defense establishment needs emergency interventions on “war footings”. Future Governments of India will have to make tough decisions and increase the budgetary allocation for the defense sector by many-folds. Military modernization must be accelerated despite the pernicious and ever-hanging issue of corruption in defense procurements. India must leapfrog the military preparedness and indigenous weapons design and production. We do need long-term strategic planning and prepare the nation for the multi-dimensional strategic challenges posed by China in the Indian Ocean, in the POK, on the Indo-Tibetan border, in Myanmar, in South China Sea, in the Indo-Pacific  region, in the air, in the field of long-range ballistic missiles, in cyberspace, and in militarization of the space. 

WE FOCUS ON STRATEGIC ISSUES PERTAINING TO INDIA'S RISE AS A GLOBAL SUPER-POWER.

Death of Kim Jong II: Chaos or Opportunity

Death of Kim Jong II: Chaos or Opportunity

by Dr. Adityanjee

http://www.boloji.com/index.cfm?md=Content&sd=Articles&ArticleID=11720 The North Korean Communist King, Kim Jong Il, the second one from the reigning Kim dynasty died of heart attack on Saturday, December 17th. His youngest son, 27 years old Kim Jong Un, the great successor is ostensibly anointed to succeed him in this hermit state. Besides the palace intrigues of the ruling dynasty, North Korean military has a powerful role in the statecraft with the untested young Kim prince-ling as the titular head of the Stalinist state. North Korea, under the leadership of Kim Jong Il had twice tested a nuclear device in 2006 and in May 2009, Its nuclear program is certainly aided and abetted by both China and Pakistan in what is called the “CHIPNOKISS” network. Last year, Korea North unveiled a uranium enrichment facility, giving it a second route to make an atomic bomb along with its plutonium program. The secretive Stalinist state of North Korea is one of the greatest threats to regional security on the Korean peninsula with frequent saber-rattling and pin-pricks to their South Korean counterparts. There are several possible geo-political scenarios following this significant event. Despite the fervent wishes of the Western observers, it is unlikely that the totalitarian Stalinist state would unravel. Communist China will continue to ensure that its most effective client state remains unified and continues to serve Chinese geo-political interests with deniability. Military will continue to rule North Korea with possibly a regent emerging from the ruling Kim dynasty while the boy-king comes of age in the state-craft.  The departed “dear Leader” also promoted his sister and her husband, Chang Song-thaek, to important political and military posts, creating a powerful gang of three. Chang can acquire the role of an effective regent for the younger Kim prince-ling. He holds a top position in the powerful Worker's Party providing some balance to the generals who have been seen as more hard-line in pushing the North to develop an atomic arsenal. The Stalinist state under the great successor will muddle along with continued economic help from China. The military will act responsibly and not take adventurous steps vis-à-vis South Korea. After several years of grooming, the young prince-ling will get his wings and would lead North Korea happily to more starvation and misery but with an iron fist. The North Korean military will maintain its chokehold on the state and continue to enjoy the privileges and the pelf. A more alarmist scenario is that the North Korean military, under threat of loss of power and privileges, might attack South Korea and create a dangerous situation on the Korean peninsula. If the North Korean generals are sane, they would not use this opportunity to test their power and hopefully would not start a new war. Having said that, anything is possible in love and war, and of course in geo-politics. Death of the “dear leader” may lead to palace intrigues and a de facto succession battle with other sons of the dead king throwing their hats in the ring. Or else, the great successor himself might precipitate a crisis to prove his “coming of age” to his brothers or to the regent.  The regime may try to deflect attention from its shortcomings and might use the nuclear weapons in the ensuing conflict. The de facto regent may want to acquire more power de jure. A prolonged succession battle might lead to more severe economic crisis, famine, misery, starvation and a consequent massive exodus of North Korean refugees into the neighboring states. Such a scenario presents the international community with a window of opportunity to help unravel the Stalinist state, complete the unfinished business of Korean War of 1954 which had ended with only an armistice agreement and without an enduring peace treaty. Perhaps, the UNSC, the IAEA and the former allied powers may need to intervene to secure the North Korean nuclear weapons if North Korean refugees start pouring into the “Demilitarized Zone”  (DMZ) and into neighboring China and South Korea. Unraveling of the Stalinist State would eventually contribute to a slow and painful demise of the made in China “CHIPNOKISS” network of illicit nuclear weapons proliferation and trade. Will China like such an outcome? Decidedly not! Will China risk an international war trying to protect her client state? Very unlikely! China will try to stem the tide of North Korean refugees into China if the unstable regime in North Korea falters. China would want the status quo to continue by any means. However, China has other pressing economic and social priorities rather than fighting another hot war in the Korean peninsula. China itself is going to go through a leadership transition in 2012 when President Hu Jintao completes his second four year term. China also needs to brace itself for possible defeat of Ma Ying-jeau of Kuomintang (KMT) in the January 14th 2012 presidential elections in Taiwan. If the DPP candidate Tsai wins the Taiwanese presidential elections, China will have a lot on its plate to deal with. Such a sequence of geo-political events in North East Asia will make reunification of the Korean peninsula possible under UN supervision. North Korean citizens would be grateful to the UN for letting that happen. South Korea would secretly favor such an outcome because it will eventually lead to removal of nuclear weapons controlled by the communist Kim dynasty from Korean peninsula. Such an interventionist scenario in the North East Asia would be in the long term strategic and geo-political interests of India. It will set an international example as to how under certain “dangerous conditions” forced denuclearization of a “rogue regime” is acceptable to the UN, the IAEA and the international community. To India’s advantage, it may ultimately lead to dismantling of the “CHIPNOKISS” network.

19-Dec-2011

The CHIPNOKISS Network and the Nuclear Pak-Mart

The CHIPNOKISS Network and the Nuclear Pak-Mart

by Dr. Adityanjee

http://www.boloji.com/index.cfm?md=Content&sd=Articles&ArticleID=11700

A fierce debate goes on whether the conclusions of the 3 years long study conducted by Georgetown University students under supervision of Professor K on Chinese nuclear weapons & missiles are valid.  The study has refocused world attention on China’s aggressive military postures. China may or may not have three thousand nuclear weapons but it definitely has tried to intimidate its neighbors in the South China Sea by using strong-arm tactics. China just announced opening of its first military base overseas in the Indian Ocean island state of Seychelles. What is generally not recognized is the China’s role in proliferating and escalating the dangers of nuclear weapons.  Iran continues to defy the world opinion with uncommon belligerence. Iran may also be preparing for its first nuclear test having amassed enough heavy enriched uranium.  Iran has consistently indulged in a game of diplomacy and obfuscation since early 2003. For the first time, former Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Masood Qureshi acknowledged that Pakistani nuclear weapons are not safe in the hands of the Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari. Though Qureshi did not give details of how Pakistan's nukes were in danger, he promised to give more information in near future.  He claimed that as foreign minister he was privy to classified information and knew the pressures and stresses Pakistan was facing over its nuclear program. Unfortunately, the international community has naively characterized this illegal international nuclear trade merely as a private network started by the rogue Pakistani nuclear scientist, AQ Khan as Nuclear Wal-Mart.  To call the clandestine nuclear proliferation & trade activities as Nuclear Wal-Mart is an insult to Sam Walton the founder of Wal-Mart. It is neither a private enterprise owned by Dr. AQ Khan nor a legitimate business owned by Pakistan. It is an illegal state sponsored illicit nuclear trade network meticulously nurtured by the Pakistani government-military-intelligence-industrial-jihadi-business complex. The whole effort was supported by Peoples’ Republic of China and funded by Saudi Arabia.  The nuclear programs of China, Pakistan and Iran are interlinked. The nuclear Pak-Mart is a small segment of a larger axis of nuclear proliferation that consists of CHI. P. NOK. I. S. S.; i.e.  CHIna, Pakistan, NOrth Korea, Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia.  China has consistently indulged in vertical, horizontal and extended nuclear proliferation activities globally. The Wiley communist dictatorship has surreptitiously either sold or “donated” nuclear technology to all the rogue nations creating a dangerous situation. Barring Pakistan, all the members of CHIPNOKISS had originally signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.  China, the fountainhead of the CHIPNOKISS network, before joining the NPT in 1992, stealthily gifted Pakistan 50 kilograms of heavily enriched uranium, 10 tons of UF6 (natural) and 5 tons of UF6 (3%). It provided Pakistan with nuclear weapons designs and gave access to the Chinese nuclear testing site,  Lon Nor,  for a nuclear test in1990. China also helped Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission in setting up UF6 plant, production reactor for plutonium and reprocessing plant. These facts were acknowledged by Pakistani rogue scientist Dr. AQ Khan in a letter to his Dutch wife Henny. Saudi Arabia has already funded Pakistan's nuclear program for the last three decades and will pay Pakistan further in hard cash for extended deterrence. It also has the ability to pay cash on the spot for ready-made nuclear weapons ordered from Pakistan. Through its client state Pakistan, China has proliferated to countries like North Korea & Libya.   Libya came clean to the IAEA in the last decade to prevent US military intervention. Documents turned in by the former Libyan government to the IAEA included Chinese nuclear weapons designs. Syria received nuclear designs from North Korea and a secret Syrian nuclear reactor was bombed by Israel in 2007 without any Syrian resistance.  While scape-goating AQ Khan, the international community condoned the role played by China and its client state and all-weather friend Pakistan. In the self-exculpatory letter to his wife, DR. AQ Khan clearly states: “You know we had cooperation with China for 15 years. We put up a centrifuge plant at Hanzhong. We sent 135 C-130 plane loads of machines, inverters, valves, flow-meters, pressure gauges. Our teams stayed there for weeks to help and their teams stayed here for weeks at a time. Late minister Liu We, VM Li Chew, vice Minister Jiang Shengjie used to visit us”.  Any further leakage of nuclear weapons or nuclear materials from the CHIPNOKISS into hands of Al Qaeda or other terrorist groups must be prevented at any cost. As the patron saint of the CHIPNOKISS, China has overzealously guarded its minions.  China has usurped its position as a member of N5 of the NPT and the P5 of UNSC to deflect serious and effective action against these rogue nations while portraying a facade of diplomacy. The six-party talks were a Chinese game-plan to frustrate the efforts by international community to contain the North Korean nuclear proliferation. The four-plus one formula (Germany, France, UK and UN) to deal with Iran floundered in 2003 because of covert support and encouragement by China to the Iranian Ayatollahs. While maintaining a diplomatic charade, China has enabled these rogue nations in subverting the international non-proliferation regimes. Nuclear containment and partial denuclearization, and not appeasement should be the strategic response of the civilized world. If international community continues to let this axis grow, the world would witness nuclear blackmail as the future diplomatic currency. The civilized world would not be able to deal with the terrorism, drug-wars and criminality because of the threats of retaliation by nuclear weapons from non-state actors. A fresh start must be made by the international community led by the IAEA in denuclearizing North Korea and Pakistan despite Chinese objections. Without defanging these two unstable and dangerous nuclear nations, no further progress would be made in preventing future nuclear proliferation.  Pakistan has already propounded the seductive theory of neo-nuclear apartheid. Nuclear disarmament must start with Pakistan, North Korea and Iran. Iran must be prevented, at any cost, from crossing the nuclear redline.  Total zero is very far away and remains a distant fuzzy dream. Meanwhile, international efforts have to focus on making the world safer by isolating and de-fanging the most dangerous and irresponsible regimes and their surrogate non-state actors that may indulge in international nuclear blackmail. Most importantly, the international community must call a spade a spade and hold China to account for its reckless nuclear proliferation activities.

12-Dec-2011

India Taiwan Strategic Economic Partnership

India Taiwan Strategic Economic Partnership

by Dr. Adityanjee

http://www.boloji.com/index.cfm?md=Content&sd=Articles&ArticleID=11685 While the Government of India made a botched and controversial move to open the $450 billion Indian retail sector for 51 % FDI from multi-brand retail transnational corporations, the nation is sadly missing out on opportunity for serious investment into her crumbling infrastructure.  Taiwan is a cash-surplus economy and a member in good standing of the World Trade Organization. Taiwan is also a democracy with the rule of common law and a respect for human rights. While India does not have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, it does have commercial relations. There was scant interaction between India and Taiwan from 1949 to 1995 owing to India's abnormal fear of Chinese over-reaction. China, under its “One China Policy” has opposed to Taiwan having any kind of independent relations with any country as it considers Taiwan a renegade province. Bilateral relations got some momentum from 1995 when trade representative offices of either country were set up in Delhi and Taipei. Owing to this historic absence of political and diplomatic relations, bilateral trade between India and Taiwan is too small. It stood at only $6.47 billion in 2010 accounting for mere 1.2% of Taiwan's total foreign trade. Taiwanese investment in India from 2001 through 2010 accounted for just 0.04% of Taiwan’s overall outward investment.  At the same time, Indian investment in Taiwan amounted to no more than 0.05% of the nation’s total foreign direct investment. India-Taiwan strategic economic relationship needs to be both deepened and nurtured as both economies are highly compatible and can be mutually complementary to one another in a number of areas. Taiwan’s foreign exchange reserves are still the 4th largest in the world and at the end of October 2011 stood at US$393.327 billion. India has not been very successful in attracting FDI from China, Japan and Russia, the other three top cash surplus countries. There is no existing security threat to India from Taiwan and hence investment of “clean capital” from Taiwan should be acceptable to India without the risk of industrial, defense & strategic espionage, theft of trade secrets or potential loss of intellectual property rights. India will have to take bold diplomatic steps in attracting Taiwanese government and private businesses to favor India while making investment decisions. The Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang Nationalist Party (KMT) faces a serious re-election challenge from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Tsai Ing-wen on 14th January of 2012.  The run-up to the 2012 election has been complicated by the entry of the veteran politician, People First Party (PFP) chairman James Soong, who was expelled from the Kuomintang a decade ago. If the pro-mainland China votes are split between Ma and Soong in a trilateral contest, the likely beneficiary would be the DPP candidate Tsai. Incidentally the same outcome had happened in year 2000 presidential elections when Soong ran as an independent candidate and finished just behind the winner Chen Shui-bian of the DPP relegating the KMT to third position. In the last Taiwanese presidential elections in 2008 which brought the Kuomintang Nationalist Party (KMT) back to power,  President Ma Ying-jeou had won by 58 per cent of the votes against the 42 per cent obtained by the then ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, Frank Hsieh. Taiwanese voters at that time were more concerned with corruption scandals during the eight years of DPP rule under the former President Chen Shui-bian who is currently in prison. Chen Shui-bian had restricted Taiwanese investment in China during his eight year rule in order to reduce the island's dependence on its giant and expansionist neighbor. Clearly, Ma has not been able to bridge the cross-straits geopolitical differences and no peace treaty has been signed during his controversial tenure. Ma is considered a trojan horse for the communist China. Taiwanese businessmen already have invested US$150 billion in the mainland China.  If Ma is defeated and the DPP again comes to power, there is a possibility of Taiwanese fiscal disinvestment in view of changed geopolitical perception of China. If there is a flight of Taiwanese capital from China following the January 2012 Taiwanese presidential elections, India should strategically prepare herself as the most likely destination for the freed-up Taiwanese capital to be invested in Indian infra-structure. Taiwanese investment in India is very low at $1 billion. The investment of 70 Taiwanese companies in India is under 0.3 per cent of Taiwanese investment in China. The India-Taiwan trade target is 10 billion dollars by 2013-2015 compared to the 60 billion dollar India-China bilateral trade in 2010.  Taiwanese investment in India has been limited to the manufacturing and technology sectors and most of this investment has been made in the state of Tamil Nadu. India's private sector needs to explore ways as to how Taiwanese capital could be tapped in Indo-Taiwanese business joint ventures. Indian IT giants can explore joint-ventures between Indian High-tech sector and the Taiwanese hardware companies.   In a hypothetical scenario, if Ma is defeated and DPP’s Tsai is elected new President of Taiwan, one of the fall-outs will be Taiwanese disinvestment of US$150 billion from the Peoples Republic of China.  Should this become a reality India needs to exploit that opportunity for investments into its physical infra-structure that needs approximately US$400 billion of new investment. Taiwan has also toyed with the idea of starting a new Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) or add more money to its existing executive development fund. This will pave the way for Taiwanese government investment in India. Though not generally known, Taiwanese businessmen have complained about arrogant attitude of their mainland business partners from the PRC who control their investment capital using dubious and deceptive business and legal practices. The processed food industry is a major component of the Taiwanese economy. In 2009, this sector posted revenues of $17 billion. In fact, four of the top 10 food companies in China are Taiwanese. Taiwanese agricultural technology isn't capital intensive, it focuses on small efficiencies to boost productivity.  Taiwan is a leader in the food processing sector and can help India modernize our capacity in the food processing this sector. India should ask for transfer of food processing technologies from Taiwan and joint collaboration in research and development. Taiwan has made heavy fiscal investments in the processed food sector in China. Taiwanese should be thinking of diversifying from China to India.  Taiwan imports seafood worth US $ 500 million annually from India and is keen to import seafood from the state of Orissa. Taiwan is also interested in investing in cold storage, refrigeration and seafood processing to increase the Indian seafood export potential. Other areas for Taiwanese investment include production of instant noodles and cooking oils.  A second “Green Revolution” in India would be possible only through industrialization of the agricultural produce and agro-business  in India. Taiwan can become the catalyzing agent that can help India feed the world. Indian farmers still fail to get right compensation for their produce owing to lack of proper ware-housing and cold storage facilities. Taiwan has organized retail stores which serve not only to procure and market products but also as places where consumers can deliver goods, buy tickets and pay utility bills. This Taiwanese retailing model is suitable for India's vast rural areas. Instead of welcoming multi-brand retail corporations, India should on a limited scale invite Taiwanese investments. This would reduce food inflation without loss of millions of jobs in small, family owned retail stores in India. Taiwan currently hosts the APEC SME (small and medium enterprises) crisis management center (SCMC). Indian businesses would benefit immensely from linkages and collaboration with Taiwan’s robust small and medium enterprises. Taiwan revolutionized the whole concept of contract manufacturing - a product is broken down into many smaller assemblies which are manufactured separately at independent locations before being reassembled. At each stage, manufacturing is optimized, thereby, reducing the overall cost of production. One very important lesson for India would be how to develop a globally competitive manufacturing industry. As the Chinese factories close down owing to increasing labor costs and recession in the West, Indian factories can start manufacturing in the global chain with Taiwanese investment in joint ventures. Over 30,000 Taiwanese Buddhist tourists visited India in 2010. Majority of them went to Bihar to visit Bodh Gaya & Sarnath.  Indian tourism sector can get a tremendous boost if we can promote the Buddhism and other Indic religious tourism circuits to the cash-surplus Taiwanese tourists analogous to the Japanese tourists. Other religious tourist destinations like Karnataka, Orissa and Tamil Nadu could be attractive to Taiwanese religious tourists.  Indian travel and hospitality industry must aggressively court Taiwanese tourists.  For the Taiwanese  nation, India is truly incredible in terms of its diversity, culture and languages. There are many Indian dance troupes in Taiwan promoted and staffed by locals who perform Odissi, Bharatanatyam and Kathak. Taiwanese are also interested in Yoga and meditation that is associated with India. Indian tourism sector needs to leverage the "soft power" of India and her civilizational assets in forging strong people to people as well as economic, and mercantile relationships with Taiwan. Let us not forget that China is trying to control India's soft power by launching the World Buddhist Forum. China's attempts to control the Buddhism tourist circuit include offering investments in Nepal's Lumbini project; offering seed money for India's Nalanda University revival project and by trying to dictate to India about hosting of the pan-Buddhist conference by Asoka Mission. Higher education is another area where joint collaboration could be beneficial mutually. Indian students are willing to go anywhere if there is an opportunity for excellent international education followed by significant job potential. Taiwan can offer scholarships to Indian students for vocational and advanced technical education. Bilateral student exchange programs can help in the areas of linguistics, liberal arts, culture, and educational technologies. With a stronger India-Taiwan strategic economic partnership, India can harvest secondary benefits. India is not a member of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation or the APEC. APEC has 21 members currently. Both China and Taiwan simultaneously joined the APEC at the same time along with Hong Kong on 12-14th November 1991. Expansion of membership in APEC is frozen on grounds of procedural objections from China. The 9th APEC Ministerial meeting had laid down guidelines for APEC membership that included geographical location in the Asia-pacific Region; broad based economic linkages with other APEC members in terms of size and share; significant integration with the world economy, and broad liberalization and deregulation policies designed to encourage external linkages.  India meets all these criteria without any doubt and must be invited to the APEC membership. If direct access is not coming India will have to use a crowbar to secure access to the APEC markets. In order for India to participate in the trade opportunities in the APEC, having an economic foot-hold in Taiwan would be strategically helpful for India’s trade and mercantile interests in this globalized world. Even if India acquires indirect access to APEC, it can be transformed eventually into Indo-Pacific Economic Cooperation by 2020 when the APEC attempts to realize its Bogor goals, namely the establishment of the free trade area of the Asia-Pacific (now re-characterized as the Indo-Pacific), promising to achieve free and open trade and investment in APEC. India, like Peoples’ Republic of China has not been invited to join the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership, a proposed free trade area. Taiwan is a member of the proposed TPP. Whereas there is bilateral Taiwan-China business, economic and mercantile relationship allowing People’s Republic of China to participate indirectly in the TPP process; India does not have that luxury. Building a strategic economic partnership with Taiwan gives India access to TPP block of countries. After two years of international arrogance, China is very defensive internationally having lost to India in the IMF elections by a majority of 107 to 77. China is feeling the international heat in the South China Sea and in the recently concluded East Asian Cooperation (EAC) meeting in Bali, Indonesia 15 out of the 18 countries singled out China for its hegemonic tactics in South China Sea. India  wisely chose not to rake the issue in the Bali meeting. However, India strongly held her ground stating that she has strong economic interests in the South China Sea that she will not forego her economic interests. China is also miffed at strong resurgence of the US interest into the Asia-Pacific region in the form of TPP from which China has been excluded. China will also undergo transfer of power in 2012  with a new CCP leadership team that may not be prepared to open yet another front with India on latter’s economic relationship with Taiwan. China continues to deepen its all-weather relationship with Pakistan and has PLA presence in the POK.  There is no reason for the Government of India to listen to the likes of MK Bhadrakumar, BS Raghavan and N. Rams from the Planet of the Panda Huggers. Nor is there any reason for the Government of India to worry about possible Chinese economic retaliation if India were to develop deeper strategic economic partnership with Taiwan. India-China bilateral trade currently is $60 billion and is heavily in favor of China. China would be the loser if takes retaliatory measures.  It would risk losing an emerging market of prosperous Indian middle class at a time when the purchasing power of the US and Euro-zone consumers is going down. China has strong economic relationship with Taiwan which has been institutionalized for more than two decades in the form of Taiwan Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) set up in 1990; and the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARTS) set up in China in 1991. In June 2011 China and Taiwan signed the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement. Both these countries had traded indirectly through Hong Kong route and other third parties prior to establishment of direct commercial and trade relationships. If China can accept FDI from Taiwan and trade directly with Taiwan, so should India. If India can attract flow of "clean" capital without "geopolitical" strings attached.  It will be welcomed by Taiwan which currently has surplus of it. It will be a win-win game for both India and Taiwan. Taiwan will get a good and trust-worthy economic partner with rule of law in lieu of China, should Taiwanese businessman decide to disinvest from China. Taiwan is a ripe candidate for India to do business with. Taking the overall geopolitical situation while China is on the defensive, time has come now for further consolidation of India-Taiwan strategic economic partnership (IT-SEP). Further steps to promote bilateral relationship must include development of a CEO's forum, cultural and academic exchanges, bilateral student exchange programs and an annual Ministerial level strategic & economic dialogue alternating in New Delhi and Taipei. IT-SEP can become a reality in the next five years (2012-2017) bringing dividends to both the countries and their economies, if India plays her economic and trade cards well and woos the Taiwanese FDI without bothering about Chinese reaction.

6-Dec-2011

THE ASSOCIATION OF AFRO-ASIAN STATES SHARING INDIAN OCEAN (AASSIO)

THE ASSOCIATION OF AFRO-ASIAN STATES SHARING INDIAN OCEAN (AASSIO)

By DR. ADITYANJEE

In a surprise move, the recently held Bengaluru meeting of the Council of Ministers of the Indian Ocean RIM - Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC) unanimously agreed to select a new name for the association by next year by mutual consultations and dialogue. The 11^TH meeting was chaired by India, one of the founding countries during which Seychelles rejoined the grouping as its 19^th member state after having left the organization in 2003. The 10^th meeting held in Yemen had appointed India as the next IOR ARC Chair and Australia as the Vice Chair for a period of two years from 2011.This regional grouping was set up initially in March 1995, launched formally on 6-7^th March 1997 in Mauritius to promote economic and cultural relations. It currently comprises 19 countries from three continents (Asia, Africa and Oceana), namely India, Yemen, Australia, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran, Kenya, Madagascar, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mozambique, Oman, Singapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Thailand, the UAE and Seychelles. The trans-continental block has also five dialogue partners - Egypt, Japan, China, Britain and France and two observers - Indian Ocean Tourism Organization (IOTO) and Indian Ocean Research Group (IORG). Turkey has applied for dialogue partner status but the application is pending over lack of formal criteria.

Bengaluru Declaration

India’s External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna inaugurated the meeting after taking the chair for the next two years from Yemen, the previous chairman. While releasing the Bengaluru communique, he aptly cited India's first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, who had envisioned a grouping of countries bordering the Indian Ocean that could help one another in tackling common challenges. In his concluding remarks, Krishna stated that the 19 countries from three continents have decided to work together to realize the full potential of Indian Ocean Rim-related institutions that have been established over the years. Bengaluru declaration, however, focused seriously on the issue of maritime security keeping in view the challenges posed to international shipping and commerce by the ruthless pirates from Somalia. The group discussed ways and means to consolidate cooperation in areas such as maritime security, combating piracy, natural disaster management, education, fisheries and marine resources management, trade and investment promotion, capacity building and tourism.

Tourism, Travel & Hospitality Industry:

As the regional countries are getting more prosperous economically, and the middle classes are expanding with more disposable incomes and extra cash to spare, travel and tourism in these countries are increasing tremendously. The Bengaluru declaration explores the intra-regional tourism potential and suggests that the relevant authorities of member countries should specifically target this sector for growth to realize the enormous potential of multilateral cooperation to the fuller extent. In this respect, this group must emulate the examples set by the ASEAN with provisions of analogous facilities for visa on arrival, ASEAN tourism association, and ASEAN specific passport scheme. The Indian Ocean Tourism Organization has observer status with the IOR-ARC; therefore, it should be natural for the block to promote intra-regional tourism on a priority basis. Member countries need to promote conventions and conferences intra-regionally to tap the potential of high-end western travelers.

Sustainable Developmental Agenda:

The Indian Ocean Rim is rich in strategic and precious minerals, metals and other natural resources, marine resources and energy, all of which can be sourced from Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ), continental shelves and the deep seabed. The group focuses on sustainable development while harvesting the natural resources provided by the Indian Ocean. Conservation and sustainable harvesting are vital for the security of the marine food resources. Though technology and rising cost of natural resources makes harvest of new resources from the sea beds economically viable, sustainability of economic development in the ecologically challenged world requires efficient and harmonious management of the shared seas. The member-nations underscored the importance of cooperation among them, including in the management and sustainable harvesting of fish stocks and combating illegal fishing and damaging fishing techniques.

Economic & Trade issues:

The Indian Ocean is the world's third largest Ocean. It carries half of the world's container ships, one third of the bulk cargo traffic, two-thirds of the world's oil shipments. It is a lifeline of international trade and economy. The region is linked by trade routes and controls some of the world's busiest sea-lanes. The key east-west arteries of international trade, especially in commodities and energy sources sail through the Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean Rim constitutes between a quarter and a third of the world's population (more than two billion people). The objectives of IOR-ARC are threefold; mainly to promote sustainable growth and balanced development of the region and Member States; to focus on those areas of economic cooperation which provide maximum opportunities for development, shared interest and mutual benefits and to promote liberalization, remove impediments and lower barriers towards a freer and enhanced flow of goods, services, investment, and technology within the Indian Ocean rim. The group disseminates information on trade & investment regimes, with a view to helping the region's business community better understand and tackle the intra-regional impediments to trade & investment. The information exchanges have been intended to serve as a base to expand intra-regional trade and economic growth.

Expressing concern over the limited growth of intra-regional trade due to poor connectivity, market complexities and inadequate trade facilitation, the Bengaluru communique’ called for rectifying the situation by increasing intra-regional investment flows. Though the intra-regional investment flows are currently modest, many of the member economies do attract substantial foreign direct investment from outside the region. Mr. Krishna called for improving and modernizing the maritime trade infrastructure including the ports and customs authorities. Besides governments, the merchant shipping firms have to modernize the transport & hospitality services infrastructure and connectivity in order to promote intra-regional trade.

Maritime Security:

The Bengaluru Declaration shared concern over the prevailing situation regarding maritime security in the Indian Ocean, particularly at the increasing level of piracy off the Horn of Africa, which posed a threat to international and regional navigation, maritime commerce and the safety of sea farers. The declaration fully supported the international efforts at the UN and the several initiatives at the regional level as well as the Contact Group on piracy of the coast off Somalia, which is coordinating anti-piracy efforts. It pledged to jointly combat the menace through sharing of information and technical assistance. Maritime security impacts strategic security of the nations in the region.Noting that Indian Ocean Rim maritime domain is at the crossroads of commerce and its busy energy trade routes pass through vulnerable points, the Bengaluru Communique said the menace of piracy has assumed alarming proportions in recent years.

The menace of piracy is increasing the cost of trade directly and higher insurance premia and human cost indirectly to the shipping industry. The group needs to build upon existing national, regional and multilateral measures to enhance coordination to combat piracy. To enhance the security in the Indian ocean, India advocated building functional relationships between navies and coast guards.

Diplomatic & Security Challenges:

Security and diplomacy go hand in hand. Diplomacy is the ultimate weapon in the search for security. The group noted that stabilization of Somalia will contribute to dealing with piracy in the region. As members take practical steps consistent with international law to combat piracy, IOR-RIM could serve as an effective vehicle for sharing information, experience and best practices. However, in order to combat piracy in the Indian Ocean region, this grouping should seriously deal with the Somalia piracy issue by immediate diplomatic recognition to the Republic of Somaliland and promote the democratically elected government of Somaliland. Strengthening the democratic government of the Republic of Somaliland will promote regional peace in the horn of Africa. It will bring enormous trade, economic and developmental benefits to the country and will discourage other tribes in the south and central Somalia from fratricidal ware-fare. To follow peaceful developmental agenda instead of allying with the Al Shabab and al Qaeda may ultimately become goal for Somalia.

It is an important co-incidence that the same day this regional meeting was held in Bengaluru, British Prime Minister David Cameron announced an international conference to deal with piracy in Indian Ocean as the UK considers it a core issue for that former super-power. The piracy problem in Indian Ocean should not be hijacked by super-powers and former super-powers to fulfill their geo-political agenda. We suggest that IOR-ARC should take a regional piracy containment multi-lateral initiative in which the Republic of Somaliland is an equal partner along with the law-less Somalia. While a dysfunctional Somalia is part of the problem, international recognition of the Republic of Somaliland is part of the solution of the piracy problem. If Southern Sudan could be recognized internationally as a new nation to prevent genocide in Africa, so should be the Republic of Somaliland. It would be strategically naïve, and indeed, myopic to continue to insist on territorial sovereignty of the failed state of Somalia that has already imploded more than twenty years ago. 
Need for a New Name:

The current name (IOR-ARC) of this regional grouping is very un-wieldy, mouthful, impractical and without a mellifluous & pronounce-able acronym. Member nations in this trans-continental grouping are essentially Afro-Asian nations. Since the essence of this regional group is the spirit of sharing the Indian Ocean, the name should reflect the reality. We take the challenge thrown by the Bengaluru meeting and suggest a catchy new name for this regional grouping with a lot of future economic and trade potential. We suggest a “sexy” new name: The Association of Afro-Asian States Sharing Indian Ocean (AASSIO). The newly suggested name reflects the solidarity among the African and Asian countries that are willing to share the economic and natural resources of the Indian Ocean in a peaceful and harmonious manner without raising contentious hegemonic issues of total or absolute sovereignty or suzerainty unlike the regional and multi-lateral disputes in the South China Sea.

Future Challenges and Opportunities:

We hope that with the newly proposed name and with a new spirit of economic dynamism, AASIO will give run for money to other regional trade groups including the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Conference), ASEAN plus 3, EAC (East Asian community) and the US led TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership). The AASSIO has potential to develop into a free trade area (FTA) or even into an economic community if the member states have determination to promote regional cooperation without bringing hegemonic ambitions to this grouping. Since neither the US, nor China, and indeed not even Russia or Japan are members of the AASIO, the focus would not be on zero sum geo-political games with economic exploitation as the hidden agenda.

Perhaps, AASIO will also work with the UN and the African Union (AU) countries to recognize the Republic of Somaliland, stabilize the remaining tribal war-torn portions of the southern and Central Somalia while containing and ultimately eliminating the terrorist groups like Al Shabab and al Qaeda in the horn of Africa. Such an approach will tackle the piracy in the Indian Ocean region eventually. Negotiating an extradition treaty among member nations to check piracy would be an important step for future. Similarly, there is a need for establishing a criminal court for expeditiously trying the pirates caught on high seas. The group also must evolve common criteria for arming the civilian crew of merchant shipping firms. International Legal protections will have to be given to the civilian crews if their defensive actions lead to loss of life of suspected pirates. We also hope that the AASSIO would invite the Republic of Somaliland to join the grouping as its 20^th member state in its 12^th meeting when the name change goes into effect de jure.

Dr. Adityanjee is the President, The Council for Strategic Affairs, New Delhi, India

Adityancsa@gmail.com

The Dragon enters the Heaven

The Dragon enters the Heaven

A Adityanjee

E-Mail- adityancsa@gmail.com

http://www.claws.in/index.php?action=master&task=991&u_id=144

China launched an unmanned spacecraft the Shenzhou VIII (literal meaning the “divine vessel”) from the Gobi desert base in the far north-western city of Jiuquan at 5.58 AM on November 1st to carry out an important docking mission scheduled within next two days. This launch was personally witnessed by Chinese Vice-premier Zhang Dejiang along with German and European space experts. The docking finally took place successfully 343 km above the surface of the Earth on November 3rd. The process of docking took 8 minutes and was aided by microwave radars, laser distance measurers and video cameras. The joint assembly will orbit around the Earth for the next 12 days while conducting a number of tests. Earlier, on September 29th, China had launched its first module for the space station named Tiangong-1 literally meaning “The Heavenly Palace”. This Tiangong-1 module weighs 8.5 tons and is expected to stay in space for two years. The launch of Tiangong-1 was also proudly witnessed by the Chinese premier Wen Jiabao personally while the President Hu Jintao watched from a space flight control center in Beijing. The ability to dock successfully was very crucial for the success of the proposed Chinese permanent space station.  All the parts of the docking mechanism and more than 600 onboard instruments were designed and made by Chinese companies both state-owned and privately owned. The space-craft Shenzhou VIII will return to the Earth after separating initially and then carrying out a second docking operation. Incidentally, the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao watched the docking operation also from an aerospace center in Beijing. China has, now, time-bound plans to develop a manned permanent space station by the year 2020. China, thus became the third space-faring nation after the US and Russia to successfully launch a space portal and build a space station.     The docking technology is hard to perfect because the two space-modules placed in the same orbit and revolving around the Earth at high speed must approach each other without mutual destruction. China decided to launch its own space station after being denied membership of the 16-nation international space station, primarily owing to the US objections. The US was concerned about sharing dual use technology with China owing to opacity and military linkage of Chinese space program. China is playing catch-up game with the US and Russia who achieved these technological capabilities in the 1960s. Following the Shenzhou VIII, there will be two more spacecraft launch missions next year including one manned mission with astronauts staying for up to one month. Two female Chinese astronauts are being trained currently for the proposed mission. China has already trained its astronauts with Russian help. In September 2008, Chinese Astronauts carried out China’s first spacewalk while piloting the Shenzhou VII.   China has also plans to launch a space laboratory before 2016. The proposed Chinese space station will weigh approximately 60 tons when completed in three sections between 2020 and 2022. It will be considerably smaller than the Russian space station Mir and the international space station. Chinese space station will consist of a module, two labs, a cargo ship and a manned rocket. The Shenzhou VIII will serve as the prototype for future Chinese space-ships. China plans more than 20 manned space flights in the next decade.    Exclusive Club of Space Superpowers   China's stated goal is to give itself parity with the other two space-faring superpowers and not be left behind. However, the Chinese space trajectory is going to be much faster. The state-run mouth-piece Global Times while appreciating the launch, highlighted the fact that China was playing a 30 years late catch-up game with the US and Russia. It further said: “But there is no choice. As long as we are determined to rise in the world and pursue rejuvenation, we need to take risks. Otherwise, China will be a nation with prosperity but subordinated to top powers, and such prosperity depends on the attitude of others”. The Global Times editorial did caution about the fiscal implications for China to go to outer space while strongly justifying the need on strategic grounds. It further rationalized: “It is impossible for a destitute China to go to outer space, but without the support of strategic tools, it can not walk far. China's future is destined to be entangled by all kinds of demands and goal. But they need to be well-balanced”.   China is, thus, openly and unabashedly advocating using its space program for strategic purposes in future. Sitting on cash-reserves of two and a half trillion dollars, a self-effacing “destitute” China remains committed to achieving space parity with the other two space super-powers at any fiscal cost.   Space and Military Implications   In January 2007, China tested an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon against one of its ageing weather satellites orbiting at 500 miles above the earth. The anti-satellite weapon was anon-explosive “kinetic kill vehicle” that destroyed its target by colliding with it. China succeeded in the 4th attempt in the series of ASAT tests. Following the successful interception, there was total silence for two weeks from the Chinese political leadership who did not acknowledged the test. China diplomatically invoked the fig-leaf of communication gap between the central Chinese government and the PLA leadership. Since the Chinese Communist party’s doctrine is that “the party controls the gun”; it was impossible for the Peoples’ Liberation Army to conduct an ASAT test without the approval of Chinese Central government. China has also developed navigation satellite jammers that are equipped to disrupt the GPS. There have been instances of China secretly firing powerful laser weapons to disable the US spy satellites by “blinding” their sensitive surveillance devices and preventing spy photography when they pass over China.  Chinese acquisition of these offensive space military capabilities forced the US to conduct an ASAT test under the garb of saving the earth from the impact of one of its dysfunctional spy satellites. The US glibly claimed that the missile strike on satellite was meant to prevent the toxic 1000-pound hydrazine tank from scattering the debris over populated areas. Clearly, there is an ongoing race amongst the three space super-powers over both militarization as well as weaponization of the space. Both China and Russia have made attempts at Geneva to bolster an international effort to ban weapons in the space in order to corner and contain the US.   South China Sea Paradigm   In the 14the century CE, Chinese eunuch Admiral Ho went on a sea voyage around the Indian and Pacific oceans. Based on these “historical conquests” China wants to control the whole of the “South China Sea” as its own sovereign territory. These medieval sea voyages are also the historical basis behind Chinese so-called legal claims on the islands and atolls in the South China Sea for their mineral and hydrocarbon wealth. China insists on dealing with each of the ASEAN nations bilaterally to resolve these claims instead of dealing with the issue multi-laterally. Based on a similar imperialistic and ancient paradigm of tributary or vassal nations, Communist China has expanded its western borders to include Tibet and East Turkistan (Xinjiang) after the defeat of the Kuomitong (KMT) government. China is desperately trying to get a toe-hold in the Arctic region so that it can lay claims to the arctic mineral wealth.   Dragon’s Divine Right to the Heavenly Space   China’s strategic thinking and behavior is stereotypically “predictably predictable”. Chinese emperors in the middle kingdom were always considered “God-Kings”. Like the South China Sea paradigm, future Chinese Governments, after having achieved space superpower status may start threatening other space-faring nations. It is possible that China in future may invoke the doctrine of “China's Heavenly Space” after having constructed a “Heavenly Palace” that mated successfully with the “divine vessel”. China has used historical precedents to justify its hegemony on both land and the sea; it will reflexively claim Chinese “divine” right to sovereignty over the space as well.    Space as China’s Core issue   The list of core issues for China is ever expanding. Starting with the historical two T’s (Tibet and Taiwan), now it includes Tibet, Taiwan, East Turkistan (China's far-western Xinjiang region), Sovereignty, Splitting the motherland; South China Sea and everything else that China can lay claims on. As the comprehensive national power of China increases, the number of China’s core issues multiplies like a hydra-headed monster. China has a predictable national habit of leaving issues dormant but ambiguous, only to rake them up when China has the power to force  the issue down the throats of strategic adversaries or peer competitors. Of course from the times of Sun Tzu, China, unlike the US likes to win the war without even fighting a battle. It is not merely hypothetical but a very real possibility that China may include access to the space as one of its “Core issues” in future.   Implications of China’s “Heaven” in Space for India   Unlike India’s space program, China has not experienced any major setback in the development of manned space flight technology. One of the recent Indian launches were infected by the Stuxtnet worm that caused malfunction and failure of the launch. China is taking rapid steps to close the space technology gap with the two other space-faring superpowers. China’s ultimate imperialistic ambition  is to be the divine master or the supreme hegemon on the land, sea and the space.  Such a scenario would be very similar to the contemporary situation whereby China now controls the global rare earth metals market single-handedly. China wants to control the access to the space for any other aspiring power but would be content to share the right to denial with the other two space super-powers for the time-being.  China will do everything to limit India’s access to space akin to its clumsy attempts to torpedo Indo-Vietnamese collaboration in the South China Sea for hydro-carbon exploration. China wishes to keep India boxed in forever in the South Asia tinder-box. China is using the 7200 km-range DF-31 nuclear ballistic missiles to target India. These nuclear missiles are being deployed in ever increasing numbers at Delingha in central Qinghai province, only 2000 km from Delhi.    India will have to take serious notice of Chinese space program sooner than later owing to its military and strategic implications. India’s satellites and other space assets face the risk of being destroyed, incapacitated or jammed by The Chinese. ASAT capability allows states that possess it threaten India’s Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (CS4ISR) architecture. In order to achieve strategic parity with the US, china will continue to advance its cyber-war and space war capabilities.  Chinese sham pledges not to proliferate these technologies to its minions are not worth the paper they are written on. Given the historical experience-from nuclear weapons, to ballistic missiles to advanced fighter aircrafts-it is imprudent to dismiss the possibility that China will transfer the space weapons technology to Pakistan.   India will have to master these space weapons capabilities instead of always lagging behind. India must look at military uses of space technologies and must develop her own ASAT capabilities. India will have to increase the budgetary allocation several folds for her space program as matter of urgency. India will have to develop a comprehensive space strategy that incorporates both civilian (read commercial) and strategic components.  The space is indeed spacious enough for Sino-Indian sibling rivalry to play out without either side getting seriously hurt. The Space and its numerous applications are too important to leave to the Chinese Dragon alone to swallow!   Dr. Aditynajee is the President of the Council for Strategic Affairs, New Delhi, India   The views expressed are personal.   Bibliography:   1. Adityanjee: Pining for Paros or Parity: http://www.c3sindia.org/us/193/pining-for-paros-or-parity/   2. Adityanjee: Securing Space on the Table: http://pragati.nationalinterest.in/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/pragati-issue12-march2008-communityed.pdf