THE ASSOCIATION OF AFRO-ASIAN STATES SHARING INDIAN OCEAN (AASSIO)

THE ASSOCIATION OF AFRO-ASIAN STATES SHARING INDIAN OCEAN (AASSIO)

By DR. ADITYANJEE

In a surprise move, the recently held Bengaluru meeting of the Council of Ministers of the Indian Ocean RIM - Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC) unanimously agreed to select a new name for the association by next year by mutual consultations and dialogue. The 11^TH meeting was chaired by India, one of the founding countries during which Seychelles rejoined the grouping as its 19^th member state after having left the organization in 2003. The 10^th meeting held in Yemen had appointed India as the next IOR ARC Chair and Australia as the Vice Chair for a period of two years from 2011.This regional grouping was set up initially in March 1995, launched formally on 6-7^th March 1997 in Mauritius to promote economic and cultural relations. It currently comprises 19 countries from three continents (Asia, Africa and Oceana), namely India, Yemen, Australia, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran, Kenya, Madagascar, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mozambique, Oman, Singapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Thailand, the UAE and Seychelles. The trans-continental block has also five dialogue partners - Egypt, Japan, China, Britain and France and two observers - Indian Ocean Tourism Organization (IOTO) and Indian Ocean Research Group (IORG). Turkey has applied for dialogue partner status but the application is pending over lack of formal criteria.

Bengaluru Declaration

India’s External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna inaugurated the meeting after taking the chair for the next two years from Yemen, the previous chairman. While releasing the Bengaluru communique, he aptly cited India's first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, who had envisioned a grouping of countries bordering the Indian Ocean that could help one another in tackling common challenges. In his concluding remarks, Krishna stated that the 19 countries from three continents have decided to work together to realize the full potential of Indian Ocean Rim-related institutions that have been established over the years. Bengaluru declaration, however, focused seriously on the issue of maritime security keeping in view the challenges posed to international shipping and commerce by the ruthless pirates from Somalia. The group discussed ways and means to consolidate cooperation in areas such as maritime security, combating piracy, natural disaster management, education, fisheries and marine resources management, trade and investment promotion, capacity building and tourism.

Tourism, Travel & Hospitality Industry:

As the regional countries are getting more prosperous economically, and the middle classes are expanding with more disposable incomes and extra cash to spare, travel and tourism in these countries are increasing tremendously. The Bengaluru declaration explores the intra-regional tourism potential and suggests that the relevant authorities of member countries should specifically target this sector for growth to realize the enormous potential of multilateral cooperation to the fuller extent. In this respect, this group must emulate the examples set by the ASEAN with provisions of analogous facilities for visa on arrival, ASEAN tourism association, and ASEAN specific passport scheme. The Indian Ocean Tourism Organization has observer status with the IOR-ARC; therefore, it should be natural for the block to promote intra-regional tourism on a priority basis. Member countries need to promote conventions and conferences intra-regionally to tap the potential of high-end western travelers.

Sustainable Developmental Agenda:

The Indian Ocean Rim is rich in strategic and precious minerals, metals and other natural resources, marine resources and energy, all of which can be sourced from Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ), continental shelves and the deep seabed. The group focuses on sustainable development while harvesting the natural resources provided by the Indian Ocean. Conservation and sustainable harvesting are vital for the security of the marine food resources. Though technology and rising cost of natural resources makes harvest of new resources from the sea beds economically viable, sustainability of economic development in the ecologically challenged world requires efficient and harmonious management of the shared seas. The member-nations underscored the importance of cooperation among them, including in the management and sustainable harvesting of fish stocks and combating illegal fishing and damaging fishing techniques.

Economic & Trade issues:

The Indian Ocean is the world's third largest Ocean. It carries half of the world's container ships, one third of the bulk cargo traffic, two-thirds of the world's oil shipments. It is a lifeline of international trade and economy. The region is linked by trade routes and controls some of the world's busiest sea-lanes. The key east-west arteries of international trade, especially in commodities and energy sources sail through the Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean Rim constitutes between a quarter and a third of the world's population (more than two billion people). The objectives of IOR-ARC are threefold; mainly to promote sustainable growth and balanced development of the region and Member States; to focus on those areas of economic cooperation which provide maximum opportunities for development, shared interest and mutual benefits and to promote liberalization, remove impediments and lower barriers towards a freer and enhanced flow of goods, services, investment, and technology within the Indian Ocean rim. The group disseminates information on trade & investment regimes, with a view to helping the region's business community better understand and tackle the intra-regional impediments to trade & investment. The information exchanges have been intended to serve as a base to expand intra-regional trade and economic growth.

Expressing concern over the limited growth of intra-regional trade due to poor connectivity, market complexities and inadequate trade facilitation, the Bengaluru communique’ called for rectifying the situation by increasing intra-regional investment flows. Though the intra-regional investment flows are currently modest, many of the member economies do attract substantial foreign direct investment from outside the region. Mr. Krishna called for improving and modernizing the maritime trade infrastructure including the ports and customs authorities. Besides governments, the merchant shipping firms have to modernize the transport & hospitality services infrastructure and connectivity in order to promote intra-regional trade.

Maritime Security:

The Bengaluru Declaration shared concern over the prevailing situation regarding maritime security in the Indian Ocean, particularly at the increasing level of piracy off the Horn of Africa, which posed a threat to international and regional navigation, maritime commerce and the safety of sea farers. The declaration fully supported the international efforts at the UN and the several initiatives at the regional level as well as the Contact Group on piracy of the coast off Somalia, which is coordinating anti-piracy efforts. It pledged to jointly combat the menace through sharing of information and technical assistance. Maritime security impacts strategic security of the nations in the region.Noting that Indian Ocean Rim maritime domain is at the crossroads of commerce and its busy energy trade routes pass through vulnerable points, the Bengaluru Communique said the menace of piracy has assumed alarming proportions in recent years.

The menace of piracy is increasing the cost of trade directly and higher insurance premia and human cost indirectly to the shipping industry. The group needs to build upon existing national, regional and multilateral measures to enhance coordination to combat piracy. To enhance the security in the Indian ocean, India advocated building functional relationships between navies and coast guards.

Diplomatic & Security Challenges:

Security and diplomacy go hand in hand. Diplomacy is the ultimate weapon in the search for security. The group noted that stabilization of Somalia will contribute to dealing with piracy in the region. As members take practical steps consistent with international law to combat piracy, IOR-RIM could serve as an effective vehicle for sharing information, experience and best practices. However, in order to combat piracy in the Indian Ocean region, this grouping should seriously deal with the Somalia piracy issue by immediate diplomatic recognition to the Republic of Somaliland and promote the democratically elected government of Somaliland. Strengthening the democratic government of the Republic of Somaliland will promote regional peace in the horn of Africa. It will bring enormous trade, economic and developmental benefits to the country and will discourage other tribes in the south and central Somalia from fratricidal ware-fare. To follow peaceful developmental agenda instead of allying with the Al Shabab and al Qaeda may ultimately become goal for Somalia.

It is an important co-incidence that the same day this regional meeting was held in Bengaluru, British Prime Minister David Cameron announced an international conference to deal with piracy in Indian Ocean as the UK considers it a core issue for that former super-power. The piracy problem in Indian Ocean should not be hijacked by super-powers and former super-powers to fulfill their geo-political agenda. We suggest that IOR-ARC should take a regional piracy containment multi-lateral initiative in which the Republic of Somaliland is an equal partner along with the law-less Somalia. While a dysfunctional Somalia is part of the problem, international recognition of the Republic of Somaliland is part of the solution of the piracy problem. If Southern Sudan could be recognized internationally as a new nation to prevent genocide in Africa, so should be the Republic of Somaliland. It would be strategically naïve, and indeed, myopic to continue to insist on territorial sovereignty of the failed state of Somalia that has already imploded more than twenty years ago. 
Need for a New Name:

The current name (IOR-ARC) of this regional grouping is very un-wieldy, mouthful, impractical and without a mellifluous & pronounce-able acronym. Member nations in this trans-continental grouping are essentially Afro-Asian nations. Since the essence of this regional group is the spirit of sharing the Indian Ocean, the name should reflect the reality. We take the challenge thrown by the Bengaluru meeting and suggest a catchy new name for this regional grouping with a lot of future economic and trade potential. We suggest a “sexy” new name: The Association of Afro-Asian States Sharing Indian Ocean (AASSIO). The newly suggested name reflects the solidarity among the African and Asian countries that are willing to share the economic and natural resources of the Indian Ocean in a peaceful and harmonious manner without raising contentious hegemonic issues of total or absolute sovereignty or suzerainty unlike the regional and multi-lateral disputes in the South China Sea.

Future Challenges and Opportunities:

We hope that with the newly proposed name and with a new spirit of economic dynamism, AASIO will give run for money to other regional trade groups including the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Conference), ASEAN plus 3, EAC (East Asian community) and the US led TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership). The AASSIO has potential to develop into a free trade area (FTA) or even into an economic community if the member states have determination to promote regional cooperation without bringing hegemonic ambitions to this grouping. Since neither the US, nor China, and indeed not even Russia or Japan are members of the AASIO, the focus would not be on zero sum geo-political games with economic exploitation as the hidden agenda.

Perhaps, AASIO will also work with the UN and the African Union (AU) countries to recognize the Republic of Somaliland, stabilize the remaining tribal war-torn portions of the southern and Central Somalia while containing and ultimately eliminating the terrorist groups like Al Shabab and al Qaeda in the horn of Africa. Such an approach will tackle the piracy in the Indian Ocean region eventually. Negotiating an extradition treaty among member nations to check piracy would be an important step for future. Similarly, there is a need for establishing a criminal court for expeditiously trying the pirates caught on high seas. The group also must evolve common criteria for arming the civilian crew of merchant shipping firms. International Legal protections will have to be given to the civilian crews if their defensive actions lead to loss of life of suspected pirates. We also hope that the AASSIO would invite the Republic of Somaliland to join the grouping as its 20^th member state in its 12^th meeting when the name change goes into effect de jure.

Dr. Adityanjee is the President, The Council for Strategic Affairs, New Delhi, India

Adityancsa@gmail.com

The Dragon enters the Heaven

The Dragon enters the Heaven

A Adityanjee

E-Mail- adityancsa@gmail.com

http://www.claws.in/index.php?action=master&task=991&u_id=144

China launched an unmanned spacecraft the Shenzhou VIII (literal meaning the “divine vessel”) from the Gobi desert base in the far north-western city of Jiuquan at 5.58 AM on November 1st to carry out an important docking mission scheduled within next two days. This launch was personally witnessed by Chinese Vice-premier Zhang Dejiang along with German and European space experts. The docking finally took place successfully 343 km above the surface of the Earth on November 3rd. The process of docking took 8 minutes and was aided by microwave radars, laser distance measurers and video cameras. The joint assembly will orbit around the Earth for the next 12 days while conducting a number of tests. Earlier, on September 29th, China had launched its first module for the space station named Tiangong-1 literally meaning “The Heavenly Palace”. This Tiangong-1 module weighs 8.5 tons and is expected to stay in space for two years. The launch of Tiangong-1 was also proudly witnessed by the Chinese premier Wen Jiabao personally while the President Hu Jintao watched from a space flight control center in Beijing. The ability to dock successfully was very crucial for the success of the proposed Chinese permanent space station.  All the parts of the docking mechanism and more than 600 onboard instruments were designed and made by Chinese companies both state-owned and privately owned. The space-craft Shenzhou VIII will return to the Earth after separating initially and then carrying out a second docking operation. Incidentally, the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao watched the docking operation also from an aerospace center in Beijing. China has, now, time-bound plans to develop a manned permanent space station by the year 2020. China, thus became the third space-faring nation after the US and Russia to successfully launch a space portal and build a space station.     The docking technology is hard to perfect because the two space-modules placed in the same orbit and revolving around the Earth at high speed must approach each other without mutual destruction. China decided to launch its own space station after being denied membership of the 16-nation international space station, primarily owing to the US objections. The US was concerned about sharing dual use technology with China owing to opacity and military linkage of Chinese space program. China is playing catch-up game with the US and Russia who achieved these technological capabilities in the 1960s. Following the Shenzhou VIII, there will be two more spacecraft launch missions next year including one manned mission with astronauts staying for up to one month. Two female Chinese astronauts are being trained currently for the proposed mission. China has already trained its astronauts with Russian help. In September 2008, Chinese Astronauts carried out China’s first spacewalk while piloting the Shenzhou VII.   China has also plans to launch a space laboratory before 2016. The proposed Chinese space station will weigh approximately 60 tons when completed in three sections between 2020 and 2022. It will be considerably smaller than the Russian space station Mir and the international space station. Chinese space station will consist of a module, two labs, a cargo ship and a manned rocket. The Shenzhou VIII will serve as the prototype for future Chinese space-ships. China plans more than 20 manned space flights in the next decade.    Exclusive Club of Space Superpowers   China's stated goal is to give itself parity with the other two space-faring superpowers and not be left behind. However, the Chinese space trajectory is going to be much faster. The state-run mouth-piece Global Times while appreciating the launch, highlighted the fact that China was playing a 30 years late catch-up game with the US and Russia. It further said: “But there is no choice. As long as we are determined to rise in the world and pursue rejuvenation, we need to take risks. Otherwise, China will be a nation with prosperity but subordinated to top powers, and such prosperity depends on the attitude of others”. The Global Times editorial did caution about the fiscal implications for China to go to outer space while strongly justifying the need on strategic grounds. It further rationalized: “It is impossible for a destitute China to go to outer space, but without the support of strategic tools, it can not walk far. China's future is destined to be entangled by all kinds of demands and goal. But they need to be well-balanced”.   China is, thus, openly and unabashedly advocating using its space program for strategic purposes in future. Sitting on cash-reserves of two and a half trillion dollars, a self-effacing “destitute” China remains committed to achieving space parity with the other two space super-powers at any fiscal cost.   Space and Military Implications   In January 2007, China tested an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon against one of its ageing weather satellites orbiting at 500 miles above the earth. The anti-satellite weapon was anon-explosive “kinetic kill vehicle” that destroyed its target by colliding with it. China succeeded in the 4th attempt in the series of ASAT tests. Following the successful interception, there was total silence for two weeks from the Chinese political leadership who did not acknowledged the test. China diplomatically invoked the fig-leaf of communication gap between the central Chinese government and the PLA leadership. Since the Chinese Communist party’s doctrine is that “the party controls the gun”; it was impossible for the Peoples’ Liberation Army to conduct an ASAT test without the approval of Chinese Central government. China has also developed navigation satellite jammers that are equipped to disrupt the GPS. There have been instances of China secretly firing powerful laser weapons to disable the US spy satellites by “blinding” their sensitive surveillance devices and preventing spy photography when they pass over China.  Chinese acquisition of these offensive space military capabilities forced the US to conduct an ASAT test under the garb of saving the earth from the impact of one of its dysfunctional spy satellites. The US glibly claimed that the missile strike on satellite was meant to prevent the toxic 1000-pound hydrazine tank from scattering the debris over populated areas. Clearly, there is an ongoing race amongst the three space super-powers over both militarization as well as weaponization of the space. Both China and Russia have made attempts at Geneva to bolster an international effort to ban weapons in the space in order to corner and contain the US.   South China Sea Paradigm   In the 14the century CE, Chinese eunuch Admiral Ho went on a sea voyage around the Indian and Pacific oceans. Based on these “historical conquests” China wants to control the whole of the “South China Sea” as its own sovereign territory. These medieval sea voyages are also the historical basis behind Chinese so-called legal claims on the islands and atolls in the South China Sea for their mineral and hydrocarbon wealth. China insists on dealing with each of the ASEAN nations bilaterally to resolve these claims instead of dealing with the issue multi-laterally. Based on a similar imperialistic and ancient paradigm of tributary or vassal nations, Communist China has expanded its western borders to include Tibet and East Turkistan (Xinjiang) after the defeat of the Kuomitong (KMT) government. China is desperately trying to get a toe-hold in the Arctic region so that it can lay claims to the arctic mineral wealth.   Dragon’s Divine Right to the Heavenly Space   China’s strategic thinking and behavior is stereotypically “predictably predictable”. Chinese emperors in the middle kingdom were always considered “God-Kings”. Like the South China Sea paradigm, future Chinese Governments, after having achieved space superpower status may start threatening other space-faring nations. It is possible that China in future may invoke the doctrine of “China's Heavenly Space” after having constructed a “Heavenly Palace” that mated successfully with the “divine vessel”. China has used historical precedents to justify its hegemony on both land and the sea; it will reflexively claim Chinese “divine” right to sovereignty over the space as well.    Space as China’s Core issue   The list of core issues for China is ever expanding. Starting with the historical two T’s (Tibet and Taiwan), now it includes Tibet, Taiwan, East Turkistan (China's far-western Xinjiang region), Sovereignty, Splitting the motherland; South China Sea and everything else that China can lay claims on. As the comprehensive national power of China increases, the number of China’s core issues multiplies like a hydra-headed monster. China has a predictable national habit of leaving issues dormant but ambiguous, only to rake them up when China has the power to force  the issue down the throats of strategic adversaries or peer competitors. Of course from the times of Sun Tzu, China, unlike the US likes to win the war without even fighting a battle. It is not merely hypothetical but a very real possibility that China may include access to the space as one of its “Core issues” in future.   Implications of China’s “Heaven” in Space for India   Unlike India’s space program, China has not experienced any major setback in the development of manned space flight technology. One of the recent Indian launches were infected by the Stuxtnet worm that caused malfunction and failure of the launch. China is taking rapid steps to close the space technology gap with the two other space-faring superpowers. China’s ultimate imperialistic ambition  is to be the divine master or the supreme hegemon on the land, sea and the space.  Such a scenario would be very similar to the contemporary situation whereby China now controls the global rare earth metals market single-handedly. China wants to control the access to the space for any other aspiring power but would be content to share the right to denial with the other two space super-powers for the time-being.  China will do everything to limit India’s access to space akin to its clumsy attempts to torpedo Indo-Vietnamese collaboration in the South China Sea for hydro-carbon exploration. China wishes to keep India boxed in forever in the South Asia tinder-box. China is using the 7200 km-range DF-31 nuclear ballistic missiles to target India. These nuclear missiles are being deployed in ever increasing numbers at Delingha in central Qinghai province, only 2000 km from Delhi.    India will have to take serious notice of Chinese space program sooner than later owing to its military and strategic implications. India’s satellites and other space assets face the risk of being destroyed, incapacitated or jammed by The Chinese. ASAT capability allows states that possess it threaten India’s Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (CS4ISR) architecture. In order to achieve strategic parity with the US, china will continue to advance its cyber-war and space war capabilities.  Chinese sham pledges not to proliferate these technologies to its minions are not worth the paper they are written on. Given the historical experience-from nuclear weapons, to ballistic missiles to advanced fighter aircrafts-it is imprudent to dismiss the possibility that China will transfer the space weapons technology to Pakistan.   India will have to master these space weapons capabilities instead of always lagging behind. India must look at military uses of space technologies and must develop her own ASAT capabilities. India will have to increase the budgetary allocation several folds for her space program as matter of urgency. India will have to develop a comprehensive space strategy that incorporates both civilian (read commercial) and strategic components.  The space is indeed spacious enough for Sino-Indian sibling rivalry to play out without either side getting seriously hurt. The Space and its numerous applications are too important to leave to the Chinese Dragon alone to swallow!   Dr. Aditynajee is the President of the Council for Strategic Affairs, New Delhi, India   The views expressed are personal.   Bibliography:   1. Adityanjee: Pining for Paros or Parity: http://www.c3sindia.org/us/193/pining-for-paros-or-parity/   2. Adityanjee: Securing Space on the Table: http://pragati.nationalinterest.in/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/pragati-issue12-march2008-communityed.pdf

ARAB SPRING, ARAB BARBARISM AND THE VICTOR'S JUSTICE

ARAB SPRING, ARAB BARBARISM AND THE VICTOR'S JUSTICE

DR. ADITYANJEE

Once upon a time, a great King-Emperor with global imperial ambitions invaded India, the land of riches. He met with stiff resistance by a brave Hindu king who fought valiantly but was captured. When the victor faced the vanquished, he asked a very pointed question, “how should I treat you”. The vanquished Hindu king replied without batting en eye-lid, “Treat me as one king treats another king”. That was the encounter between Alexander, the great and King Puru or King Porus as the Greeks call him.

In 7^th century CE, Muhammed Bin Qasim attacked the Indian province of Sindh from the west on behalf of the Caliph Umer. He was not successful the first time. Raja Dahir of Sindh was defeated eventually on the 15^th time with stronger force and use of deception. His wife and two daughters Parimal Devi and Suraj Devi were taken as war booty for the Caliph along with thousands of other women and children taken as slaves. The story is recapitulated again in medieval times, when a king, not so great, with global imperial ambitions invaded India again and met with fierce resistance by another brave Hindu king. The Hindu king won the battle and in great Hindu liberal tradition, let the invading king go back to his native land. Next year, the invader attacked again and was defeated and let go. This happened for sixteen consecutive years. The seventeenth year the invading king defeated the Hindu King in Delhi, imprisoned him and took him back to his own capital and there he blinded the defeated Hindu king in both the eyes while keeping him as a prisoner. That was the victor's justice meted to Prithavi Raj Chauhan by Muhammed Ghori.

The fact is that the Arab Imperialism started during the days of Calpih Umer, who had started conquering other countries. Since the days of Caliph Umer, Arab imperialism at its brutal best triumphed over the Asian countries because of its ruthlessness, barbarism and religious (Jihadi) fervor. Arab tribalism combined with ruthlessness, deception and Jihadi fervor created a potent imperialistic empire. The sad history of medieval (Islamic controlled) India is replete with tales of son imprisoning the father and killing the brothers brutally in order to gain the imperial throne. In the land of the pure, Pakistan since partition from India, there has not been any instance of democratic transition in a peaceful manner. Military might and brutal force has been the determinant of outcome from one military dominated regime to the next. The joke goes around, if one general does not go peacefully, he has to go the “Mango Crate” way like General Zia-ul-Haq who died under mysterious circumstances of plane crash caused by lethal gases emanating from the gift of mango crate.

The lot of celebratory noise in the West about the so-called Arab Spring is jarred by the barbarism shown by the victors in the rebellion, be it in Iraq or Libya. At least in case of Saddam Hussain there was a legal trial followed by judicial execution that was marred by jubilation and humiliation of the executed person. In case of Muammar Qadhafi, there are videos circulating on the inter-net with frame by frame analysis that show there was definite torture, sodomization with a stick or combat knife followed by public beatings, cold-blooded killing and shocking display of the dead body of Qadhafi for four and half days like an animal in a meat cold-storage. Whatever he did during his 42 years of despotic and brutal dictatorship is not being condoned here. The legal point is that Qadhafi was captured as a prisoner of war. Torture of POWs is not allowed under the Geneva convention. In this case of torture, NATO countries are complicit because they actively participated in aerial bombings of the Qadhafi convoy while he was trying to escape from Sirte, his home town. It is high time that the leaders of the high priests of international human rights industry, David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozi are hauled to the ICC in the Hague for their culpability in public torture and degradation of a prisoner of war in the 21^st century.

The Qadhafi torture and killing was sheer re-enactment of the brutal drama that happened in Afghanistan in the nineteen nineties. After the Taliban captured the then Afghanistan president Najibullah, they killed him and mutilated his dead-body by removing his genitals followed by a gory public display of the Najibullah's corpse on a public square. How does the NATO and the West justify such a naked display of barbarism in modern times? Arab culture still remains a tribal culture without modernization. Arabs and their cultural, religious and political descendants have historically displayed brutal barbarism at the time of transfer of power. Peaceful transfer of power in Arab countries is an exception rather than the rule. Arab spring is just simple nonsense being propagated by the Western interests to provide themselves with a fig-leaf in order to control the Arab hydrocarbon riches. The new set of Arab rulers being brought into power in these Arab countries are likely to be as ruthless as the dictators deposed. Already in the Tunisian elections, the Islamists won. The same story will be repeated in the yet to be held Egyptian elections. The Transitional National Council leader in Libya Mustafa Jalil has already gone on record that all the secular laws enacted under Qadhafi will be replaced by Shariat laws. Yemen, Bahrain and Syria are continuing with their genocidal civil war under the garb of Arab spring. There has been definitely brutal and ruthless foreign intervention by the Saudis and Pakistani forces in Bahrain to suppress the rebellion under the benevolent patronage of the West. The middle-east, aka Arab countries are likely remain mired in a permanent civil war of genocidal proportions.

Arab Spring is likely to lead to the eventual take-over of the middle-eastern countries by Islamist forces in the long run replacing the aging dynastic monarchs and military dictators. The new rulers will be more ruthless and more brutal than those who were replaced. With three exceptions (Israel, Iran and Turkey), all the middle-eastern countries are Arab. We witnessed the same phenomenon in Iran in 1979 when the authoritarian regime of Shah Raza Pehlavi was toppled by the Islamic revolution. The new Islamic revolutionary regime headed initially by Ayatollah Khomeini and now by Ayatollah Khamnaei has been more brutal than the Shah Pehlavi. There have been more deaths and killings in Iran since 1979 after the Islamic regime took over as compared to Shah's time. Iran is technically not an Arab country but besides geographic proximity the other common factor is the Shariat law enshrined in the Iranian Islamic regime. In Afghanistan, there was respect for women under the Soviet sponsored communists and even under the Najibullah regime. Once the Taliban took over, the women were relegated to the Burqa and lost all their dignity and independence. Even under the so-called democratic regime of Hamid Karzai sponsored by the US the Afghan women have continued to languish behind the Burqa without any civil or human rights. The kingdom of Saudi Arabia still does not allow women to drive independently. In the next decade, the middle-east is unlikely to be a modern and civilized place with respect for human rights and devoid of barbarism and authoritarianism.

The neo-cons and arch-conservatives like Charles Krauthammer in the US have justified the treatment meted to Qadhafi by rationalizing that he brought it upon himself. Western governments including the US have rationalized these brutalities as the “fog of war” knowing fully well that they have both responsibility and culpability. The political neo-liberals and the leftists in India will continue to rationalize and defend the Arab barbarism and the Islamist imperialism using sophistry and the silly doctrine of “secular fundamentalism”. India needs to brace herself for renewed terror assaults from her Western land borders and coasts by yet more Jihadi terrorists because they will be launched not just from the safe havens in Pakistan but also from the newly installed Islamist regimes all over the Middle-east and South-West Asia under the garb of Arab Spring. Time has come to call a spade a spade. There are cultural differences in various parts of the world including the middle-east and South-West Asia. Let us not forget what George Santayana said once: “Those who fail to learn from the lessons of history are condemned to repeat it”.