First Annual Cleveland Symposium of International Affairs 

Presented by: The Council for Strategic Affairs

Please Register  ⇨  Jammu & Kashmir: The way forward

 

DR. ADITYANJEE 
PRESIDENT, 
THE COUNCIL FOR STRATEGIC AFFAIRS, 
NEW DELHI 
adityancsa@gmail.com 
twitter@adityanjee 
अपि स्वर्णमयी लङ्का न मे लक्ष्मण रोचते जननी जन्मभूमिश्च स्वर्गादपि गरीयसी 

Pulwama- a tipping point in Indian's Foreign Policy?

Pulwama- a tipping point in Indian's Foreign Policy?

by Dr. Anjali Kanojia, Ph.D.

As the diaspora woke up on Valentine's day, most received good morning text messages with flowers, heart photos and emojis while many of us also had news awaiting on our phones about the brutal attack against the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) in Pulwama.  The immediate response to such depraved inhumanity imposed by Islamic terrorists on Indian soil warrants our sympathy and financial help for the forty souls who lost their lives without a real chance to fight. But, most of us remain shocked and exceedingly perplexed about long-term strategies towards Islamist terrorism and the deteriorating state of Pakistan. 

Solutions covered in the media and within public opinion range from diplomacy to declaration of war on the same groups which have been responsible for multiple attacks on India.  Further solutions include: increasing dialogue and engagement with Pakistan, Islamic terrorists, or a combination of the two, engaging the international community to isolate Pakistan via sanctions and re-examining aid, engaging China in order to weaken Pakistan-China ties, immediate strikes on those responsible to seek revenge, a planned surgical strike to isolate and weaken those responsible, empowering separatist movements within Pakistan to further weaken the state machinery and governance highlighting the plight of minorities in the provinces and exposing the day-to-day hardships faced by them including but not limited to kidnapping of minority, including Hindu children and women, forced conversions, love jihad, and brutal murders, and long-term strategies such as engaging and empowering Non-Governmental Organizations NGOs on the ground to do exactly the type of work which has been occurring in India.  Lastly, a strategy from outside the government involves use of social media to expose the realities on the ground, including education through facts, historical accounts, and statistically valid data to counter alternative facts and false narratives which have been increasingly prominent in all sectors of society, including academia. 

Let us examine the feasibility of some of the strategies.  Dialogue and diplomacy are the pillars of democracy and international relations.  However, what is the value of diplomacy for nations which are religious republics or those who are communist in nature?  Should India utilize instruments understood by the nation with which she's trying to build bridges with, or continue to use democratic tools which seem to have little to no effect throughout history, at least during her post-independence period?  How does India efficiently deal with the growing threat of the Islamic-Communist nexus within her soil and outside her borders?  Active international engagement with hostile nations ought to be continues in nature, not just reactive after experienced setbacks. This will require a larger budget toward growing India’s diplomatic corps as well as active lobbying by the Indian diaspora in respective nations. 

The United Nations too needs lobbying from the Indian angle given China usually sides with Pakistan and against India.  If we look at increasing India’s pressure on Pakistan internationally, most likely the aid going to Pakistan will slowly dwindle, allowing non-governmental actors such as NGOs to step in and provide help and stability to those who have been marginalized by society.  This may not occur overnight but the strategy might work. As far as strikes and retaliation is concerned, the common public is rarely aware of such moves until after they've occurred.  However, the unity of the Indian public opinion including the diaspora seems to indicate that such a strike orchestrated by the Government of India would be more than welcomed.  Use of social media to show the reality in Kashmir, and education of the people on the history of Kashmir, such as the exodus of Hindu Pandits and miscalculations and bad policy-making post-Independence, might prove worthwhile in the age of hyper-liberalization regarding situations and circumstance.  In the short-run, better planning and coordination are warranted in moving large convoys, and petitioning for better protection such as body armor, vehicles and tanks to be included in the budget is important as well.  The Government of India has big objectives to accomplish with her neighbors, such as strengthening relations with Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal is crucial; maintaining dialogue with Iran and influence over the Maldives, contributing towards stability in Afghanistan too is a must. The need for a strong diplomatic core is important now more than ever.

History and Political Science research has shown that the public rallies behind the flag in moments of turmoil such national upheaval.  In this case, it would mean that the citizens of India would be more supportive of Prime Minister Modi and trust his judgement regarding Pulwama.  The incumbent therefore, has an advantage when national security is under attack.  Stability in government and the unwavering support of whichever party or entity is at the Center is usually preferred by the public in comparison to unnecessary political swaps during times of crisis.  Many of us remember our differences with U.S. President George Bush (43rd President), but the traumatic events during 9/11 served as a tipping point in his presidency, united everyone behind his agenda, including the war in Afghanistan and then fighting in Iraq. 

Though the public may forget the emotions, despair and loss felt on February 14, 2019 and onward, this extremely sad and violent attack on the CRPF may help keep the Modi government in power during upcoming elections in May 2019.  Also, this event may allow a usually cautious India to actively take an aggressive stance against terrorism, and not simply the usual reactive approach.  Families who lost members in the attack stated that they are proud of the family member's life which was lost and though they are devastated, have no regrets; this shows their pride in service to the country and resilience against evil forces.  Many of us who have looked upon this tragedy have further firmed up our belief that the code of dharma, or righteous conduct will prevail and that the laws of karma will spare no one. 

Anjali Kanojia, Ph.D. is a Political Scientist and views expressed here are her own.


अपि स्वर्णमयी लङ्का न मे लक्ष्मण रोचते जननी जन्मभूमिश्च स्वर्गादपि गरीयसी

 DR. ADITYANJEE
PRESIDENT,
THE COUNCIL FOR STRATEGIC AFFAIRS, NEW DELHI
 adityancsa@gmail.com

twitter@DrThinkTank

Pulwama is the New Pearl Harbor!

The dastardly malicious terrorist attack in Pulwama district of Jammu & Kashmir killing 42 CRPF soldiers is the latest calculated act of war by the Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) of the Jihadistan, aka Pakistan, to provoke civilian unrest in India prior to 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Attempt to disrupt India’s democracy is a brutal assault on the heart of democracy!

On February 14, around 42 CRPF personnel were killed in Jammu and Kashmir's Pulwama district in a Jihadi terror attack orchestrated by Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), a semi-military outfit nurtured by Pakistan. The CRPF convoy comprised of 78 buses in which around 2,500 personnel were travelling from Jammu to Srinagar. Around 42 martyred soldiers were in a bus, into which the terrorist rammed his vehicle with over 100 kg explosives. It was the deadliest attack on Indian security forces in Jammu & Kashmir. This is a well-planned and calculated military operation orchestrated by the ISI, an intelligence agency of Jihadistan and not of a lone wolf Aadil Ahmed.

Pulwama terrorist attack is a game changer for the psyche of the Indian nation! Time has come for the Government of India to take proper military and police action against the terrorists, their backers and the terror infra-structure in the entire state of Jammu & Kashmir. India must show her resolve as a hard state and not as a “lamb state” and take the challenge head-on. We must not be thwarted in our duty and dharma to protect our nation state from Pakistani onslaught owing to pressure from USA and UK, the historical backers of Pakistan. Being a rentier state, Pakistan has new sugar daddies including Saudi Arabia and China that will continue to blindly support the Jihadistan. Nothing must come in the way of action that is the need of the time now! Political leadership of India must show a firm resolve to decimate terrorism instead of looking towards the UNSC to declare certain individuals as terrorists. Any territory that harbors terrorists wanted in India must become a lawful target for military action and total annihilation.

Government of India should declare immediately a state of internal and external emergency in the state of Jammu and Kashmir owing to the law and order situation created post Pulwama Jihadi terror attack. Armed forces must be, now, given free hand to neutralize the terror assets of Jihadistan working under the garb of Hurriyat Conference. The decision to withdraw security cover to Hurriyat leaders is a welcome first step. The bank accounts of all Hurriyat leaders and their assets must be frozen immediately. The flow of money from Pakistan to terrorist organizations and terrorists through Hawala transactions must be stopped immediately so that stone-pelters are not paid to disrupt the security combing operations. The stone-pelters are agents of terrorists and an important part of the never-ending war being waged against the Indian state. The war like situation must be dealt with war-footing only. If the Lok-Sabha elections need to be postponed in the state of J&K, so be it. National security comes first, elections come later. The local elections in J& K can be delinked from the national elections. The state can remain under the President’s rule till the security situation is controlled satisfactorily and all the strategic assets of ISI and Jihadistan are completely eradicated from the soil of J&K in its entirety. Pakistan financed Hurriyat leadership must be arrested and sent to Tihar jail while the military combing operations take place in the J&K. After the successful completion of national general elections in 2019, the six J&K Lok Sabha seats can go for polling at a later more convenient date when security forces can be freed up for election duties.

Military action must deploy a massive and overwhelming force that should lead to an end objective accomplished in sight. The Line of Control (LoC) is not a holy cow and security operations must be taken across the LoC. Military action must decapitate the Jihadi Leadership based across the LoC in the Jihadistan-Occupied Kashmir (JOK) using killer drones. All the terror infra-structure, Jihadi training camps, terror launch pads, military assets of state sponsored actors, ammunition depots, ordinance factories, and civilian infra-structure in permanent support of Jihadi operations in the Jihadistan-Occupied part of J& K must be destroyed by precision airstrikes, killer drones and hypersonic missiles. The legitimate targets for military action and aerial bombardment include power plants, military hospitals, water plants, military bases and other supportive infra-structures including terrorist launch pads, bridges, airports, military runways and highways that transport military supplies across the JOK. Muzaffarabad is an appropriate target for military action and retaliation for providing financial backing, political cover and material support to terror organizations. The same holds true for the CPEC infrastructure being developed and militarily deployed in the JOK by Pakistan. Government of India would not be violating any international law or treaty by taking law and order actions in Indian territories under adverse possession by the Jihadi forces across the LoC. Under international law, India has every right to self-defense. Entire state of Jammu & Kashmir including Gilgit and Baltistan are part of India. Indian security forces have every right to go anywhere in the state of J&K under international and national law.

Revocation of the most favored nation (MFN) status is the first action in a series of economic sanctions against Pakistan. We must impose strong economic costs on Pakistan both bilaterally as well as regionally. Pakistani artists and players must not be allowed to earn money in India. No more medical visas to Pakistanis for free treatment in Indian hospitals should be granted. The flow of water to Jihadistan from the six rivers originating in J& K must stop during the war situation. If the diplomatic relations have to be downgraded or severed, so be it. We must recall out High commissioner from Islamabad and send packing Pakistani High commissioner as persona non grata (PNG).

ISI is punching too much above its weight regionally by having simultaneous terror operations in India, Afghanistan and Iran by its state sponsored proxy actors and strategic assets. On February 13, a total of 27 members of Revolutionary Guard Corps were killed after an explosive-laden vehicle targeted the bus which was ferrying the military personnel in Khash-Zahedan sector of Sistan-Baluchistan province in south-eastern Iran.  The Iranian bombing also injured 17 others. According to Iranian media, Jaish-al-Adl, a separatist militant group claimed responsibility for the deadly assault.

While the Government of India has the immediate obligation to take stern and effective counter-military action to respond to this latest attack in the asymmetrical war by thousand cuts; time has come for a regional approach to neutralize the Jihadistan by a three-way pincer like military movement by the three countries directly affected by the fountainhead of Jihad. These three countries located in South-West Asia are namely India, Afghanistan and Iran. A common military alliance for the tactical purpose of defeating Jihadi forces once for all is in the strategic interests of all the three countries that are ancient civilizational brothers. India and Afghanistan have had civilizational and matrimonial alliances from the time of Mahabharata more than five thousand years ago. India and Iran are the two civilizational nations torn asunder by the colonial machinations of the British empire that created a wedge state of Jihadistan, aka Pakistan, dividing the land-based access between India and Iran. Government of India must offer bilateral Friendship and mutual assistance treaties to both Afghanistan and Iran. As the US starts abandoning Afghanistan, under Trump, there is going to be a security vacuum in Afghanistan. Pakistan will continue to use Taliban proxies to acquire strategic depth in Afghanistan. The strategic partnership agreement (SPA) with Afghanistan signed in October 2011 needs to be upgraded to include military, mutual defense and security cooperation. India will need to develop an Army and an Airforce base in Afghanistan, having invested $3 billion in civilian reconstruction of Afghanistan. Both President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Dr. Abdullah Abdullah should have no hesitation in signing a bilateral friendship and mutual defense assistance treaty with India for next ninety-nine years. This should be followed by negotiations of a trilateral regional security framework involving India, Afghanistan and Iran (IAI). Such regional security framework must allow Indian armed forces access to land bases in Afghanistan and use of Chabahar port as a naval base for security and maritime action against Pakistan. India has to be in the driver’s seat this time to safeguard her national and regional geo-strategic interests without looking for permission to act from Washington, DC, New York, Geneva or from London! Pulwama is the new Pearl Harbor for the modern day India. The entire world must understand this!

अपि स्वर्णमयी लङ्का न मे लक्ष्मण रोचते जननी जन्मभूमिश्च स्वर्गादपि गरीयसी DR. ADITYANJEE PRESIDENT, THE COUNCIL FOR STRATEGIC AFFAIRS, NEW DELHI

adityancsa@gmail.com

twitter@DrThinkTank