This article originally was published on June 23rd 2016 on the http://www.realcleardefense.com/
The
Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) is a 48-nation exclusive export control
regime dedicated to curbing nuclear arms proliferation while promoting
safe international nuclear commerce for civil nuclear energy. After
receiving a country-specific waiver for the India–United States Civil
Nuclear Agreement from the NSG in 2008, most western nations advocated
for India’s inclusion into the NSG, even Russia has expressed
unconditional support for India. The sole outlier for the major powers
remains China, though China could benefit from supporting India’s
membership.
Instead, China has spearheaded a diplomatic
campaign to thwart India’s entry into the NSG. Doubling down on efforts
to link India with China’s all-weather friend Pakistan, China has
grasped at rationales to prevent India’s NSG membership.
China has articulated three main pseudo-arguments
against India’s entry into the NSG. The first is that India is not a
signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
(Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT) of 1968 and allowing India to join
does not comport with the greater non-proliferation agenda. Also,
India’s entry might disturb the strategic balance in the Indian
sub-continent, further encouraging Pakistan to take more desperate
measures to seek strategic parity with India. Lastly, China argues that
the NSG should be based on specific criteria, rather than selectively
choosing suitable nations for entry.
On all three counts, China is using clever
sophistry to block India’s long overdue entry into the NSG. Whereas the
roots of China’s obstructionist view stems from China’s strategic
insecurity and fears of another rising Asian nation in the international
geo-political theatre.
Let us discuss China’s pseudo-arguments point by
point. France’s NSG membership, in 1975, despite not being a signatory
of the NPT until 1992, thus creating precedence for a non-signatory of
NPT becoming a member of the NSG. China’s second argument, again
fallacious, attempting to adjoin Pakistan’s nuclear program with that of
India. Pakistan’s aggressive assertions regarding the potential use of
tactical nuclear weapons against India, is a vast departure from India’s
peaceful and defensive nuclear posture. Particularly considering
India’s need for nuclear energy to support a burgeoning economy and
population, and to minimize the use of fossil fuels to support current
climate change initiatives.
Currently, there are only four
countries that are non-signatories to the NPT: India, Israel, Pakistan
and South Sudan. North Korea, having withdrawn from NPT is obviously not
a candidate for NSG. Israel and South Sudan are not seeking NSG
membership, leaving just India and Pakistan. India and Pakistan have
starkly contrasting non-proliferation records. Pakistan and China’s
nuclear cooperation lacks a great deal of transparency, and is obviously
a mix of civilian AND military applications, which should be cause for
alarm.
China, worried about growing India-U.S. strategic
cooperation, sees Pakistan as a mechanism to contain India in a
perpetual regional conflict. China provided Pakistan with 50 kg of free
weapons grade HEU and allowed Pakistan to test its first nuclear weapon
of Chinese design in 1990 at China’s own Lop Nor nuclear test range.
Essentially, China is a rising hegemon that can not
countenance a rising India, systematically placing roadblocks to
India’s entry into the diplomatic world, commensurate with India’s size
and economic maturity. The time has come for the 5th generation
leadership of communist to do the prudent thing by diplomatically
supporting India’s entry into the NSG. China should remember that India
had supported communist China’s entry into the UNSC as a permanent
member in 1971 despite having bilateral border issues. Diplomatic
hegemony by China cannot arrest a rising India’s entry to NSG, UNSC,
APEC or any other international body. Continued attempts to limit
India’s participation in the international community will actually cause
China harm rather than goodwill.
China was a brotherly country to India until the
occupation, and eventual annexation, of Tibet. The following attack on
India in 1962 is still ingrained in the minds of the international
community. India’s industrial base and growing economy is on pace to
rival that of both the United States and China. If China wants the 21st
century to be remembered as an Asian century, China must learn to
recognize and accept India’s vital role.
China as a nation must do some self-introspection regarding its hegemonic behavior and expansionist policies since 1949. China has no allies worth naming on the twin issues of its imperialistic behavior in the East and South China Seas. Peoples’ Republic of China can gain immense goodwill from a peaceful and rising India if it stops obstructing India’s entry into the NSG on June 24th 2016 in Seoul, South Korea.
अपि स्वर्णमयी लङ्का न मे लक्ष्मण रोचते जननी जन्मभूमिश्च स्वर्गादपि गरीयसी
DR. ADITYANJEE
PRESIDENT, THE COUNCIL FOR STRATEGIC AFFAIRS,
NEW DELHI
twitter@DrThinkTank
